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Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG

19.09.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQ

Group.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The

result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an

invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

Company Name: MHP Hotel AG

ISIN: DE000A3E5C24

Reason for the research: Preview / Review

Recommendation: BUY

from: 19.09.2025

Target price: EUR 3.00

Target price on sight of: 12 month

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

H1 preview: Strong growth & margin expansion expected

Next Monday, MHP will release its H1 report, which we expect to come in

strong following the already released hotel performance figures for Q2. In

detail:

H1 sales are seen to increase 12.2% yoy to EUR 79.0m, carried by a strong

development in Logis sales, which were up 14% yoy to EUR 60.1m according to

the hotel performance reports. This was mainly driven by higher occupancy

rates (eNuW: +1pp yoy in H1), another 8% (eNuW) improvement of the ADR to EUR

221 as well as the initial effect of the Koenigshof. The result i

particularly impressive given the absence of major one-off events like the

2024 Euros or large concerts series (e.g. Adele in Munich). F&B sales also

grew 11% yoy to EUR 16.3m, while the other sales segment should have remained

stable yoy.

This should have resulted in the first positive H1 EBITDA since the listing.

In fact, H1 EBITDA is expected at EUR 2.1m (H1'24: EUR -1.5m), implying a 2.7%

margin. In our view, this clearly displays positive operating leverage, even

during the seasonally softer H1.

On this basis, we expect management to confirm the FY25 outlook of c. EUR 180m

sales (eNuW: EUR 185m) and EBITDA of EUR 15m (eNuW: EUR 15.3m/ EUR 10.3m adj. EBITDA

excl. key money payments). In our view, this is absolutely in reach,

considering the historically stronger H2, the initial impact from the Conrad

in Hamburg (283 additional rooms, >10% increase on group level) as well a

the ramp-up of the Koenigshof. Based on our H1 estimates, the guidance

implies 11.5% yoy H2 sales growth as well as an EBITDA margin of 12.8% (v

13.1% in H2'24), which again is reasonable, in our view.

At least equally important, however, is what lies ahead for MHP. Following

the successful capital increase in early Q3 (EUR 4.5m gross proceeds at EUR 1.45

per share), the company is now well-positioned to further expand it

portfolio. The timing seems perfect, given that the current challenge

several peers are facing should create attractive opportunities for MHP.

With industry-leading KPIs and approximately EUR 10m in available funds, MHP

is well-placed to secure some attractive locations in the coming quarters.

Note that aside from the already planned openings in Hamburg and Stuttgart,

we do not consider any portfolio additions in our model, indicating that any

announcements would result in further upside.

Besides taking over hotels and operating them under a top-tier hotel brand

(e.g. Marriott or Hilton), we expect MHP to also further roll out its own

boutique brand MOOONS, following the promising performance of its first

location in Vienna (11% EBITDA margin in FY24).

Overall, we maintain our strong conviction of the investment case, which i

supported by the company's current EV/adj. EBITDA and FCFY metrics. We

therefore reiterate our BUY rating and keep our PT unchanged at EUR 3.00 based

on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=ca59c2fed068b3ec2530ce1ecd51a56d

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschlu

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2200066 19.09.2025 CET/CEST

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