The slow global ramp-up of green hydrogen is causing problems for electrolysis specialist Thyssenkrupp Nucera. „The situation on the market for green hydrogen became even more challenging in the reporting year,“ said CEO Werner Ponikwar, commenting on the preliminary figures for the past financial year. Nonetheless the company is in a position to master the challenges and pursue its strategic goals „thanks to its very good positioning in the hydrogen and chlor-alkali market and its very high financial resilience“.

Investors, however, did not take the weak forecast for the financial year that began in October quite so calmly. The SDax stock plummeted by more than 10% on Tuesday morning, reaching 7.27 euros, close to its record low of 6.86 euros in April. The manufacturer of electrolysis plants, which is majority-owned by Thyssenkrupp, thus continues to trade well below its issue price of 20 euros. Thyssenkrupp floated the company on the stock exchange in June 2023 via a spin-off. Subsequently, the share price remained above the issue price for only a few weeks.

Although Thyssenkrupp Nucera had set deliberately modest targets for the 2024/25 financial year, it narrowly missed its revenue target of 845 million euros (forecast: 850 to 920 million euros). This was due to weak business in the alkaline water electrolysis segment. With sales of 459 million euros, the segment still ended up within the target range of 450 to 550 million euros, but the Dortmund-based company had hoped for more. In December last year, the Executive Board had emphasised that the lower end of the forecast range in the green hydrogen business would be achieved simply by processing existing orders.

A glance at the order book reveals that this has not been the case in the meantime. According to preliminary figures, order intake for the group amounted to 348 million euros (–48%). Of this, only 26 million euros (previous year: 356 million euros) was attributable to the green hydrogen business. Meanwhile, order intake in the chlor-alkali electrolysis business increased by 15% to 322 million euros. The Group's order backlog decreased to 0.6 (1.1) billion euros as of the balance sheet date of 30 September. This also has consequences for the current cycle, for which a significant decline in revenue is expected.

Specifically, consolidated sales of between 500 and 600 million euros are forecast. Measures have already been initiated to offset the associated lower cost coverage, according to the company. Nevertheless, this will only cushion the impact on earnings. Consolidated earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), which returned to the black in 2024/25 with 2 (–14) million euros, are likely to be in the red again. A figure between –30 and 0 million euros is being forecast.

The once lofty growth expectations for the global hydrogen ramp-up have long since become obsolete. However, the International Energy Agency's „Global Hydrogen Review 2025“ offers a glimmer of hope: according to the review, estimates for the installed production capacity for green hydrogen by 2030 have declined for the first time this year. At the same time, however, the number of projects that have reached a final investment decision has increased by 20%.