CFO-Interview withSteffen Hoffmann, Aurubis

Aurubis is fully banking on the metal boom

Multimetal producer Aurubis is highly sought after by investors this year. The MDax company, valued at around 5 billion euros, wants to profit from the metal demand generated by technological megatrends. In an interview, CFO Steffen Hoffmann even refers to it as the „decade of metals“.

Aurubis is fully banking on the metal boom

Mr Hoffmann, the Aurubis share price has risen by more than 40% so far in 2025 and recently reached a record high of 120.40 euros. How do you explain the boom?

We generally leave it to the capital market to comment on the share price. We focus on our core business and on achieving good operating results and implementing strategic projects within the specified time and budget. We also concentrate on further strengthening the trust of our stakeholders, not least against the backdrop of the change in the Executive Board last year. The capital market clearly recognises the relevance of Aurubis in the field of critical materials. The market recognises that Aurubis has good answers to megatrends. We are working on further sharpening our unique selling points.

What do you mean by that?

By that I mean above all our special expertise in producing 20 multimetals and elements. We are better than the competition at processing complex raw materials. Another important argument in our dialogue with investors is that we have a particularly low carbon footprint within our industry – for copper, it is more than 60% below the global average for all copper smelters. We are working to clearly differentiate ourselves from the competition in this area. In addition, we reinforced our cash flow orientation at our most recent Capital Markets Day. At the same time, we are becoming more predictable with our dividend policy.

We are focusing on global megatrends that are significantly increasing demand for critical metals.

To what extent are external factors contributing to the stock market upturn?

We focus on the things we can influence ourselves: operational performance, reliability and transparency towards shareholders, and the disciplined implementation of projects. We are focusing on global megatrends that are significantly increasing demand for critical metals. Many of the relevant megatrends are becoming increasingly important on the capital market. Copper, as one of the most important elements for electrification, the transformation of our energy infrastructure, and AI and data centres, is a particular focus here.

How do you assess the outlook for copper demand?

The decade of metals has begun. We see sustainable drivers of demand: electrification, energy infrastructure, defence and security, artificial intelligence and data centres. The megatrends and the associated demand are real and will shape the next ten years.

About the person

Steffen Alexander Hoffmann has been Chief Financial Officer of Aurubis since 1 October 2024. The 55-year-old industrial engineer has had a long career in the automotive sector: born in Stuttgart, he worked for Mercedes and Daimler from 1996 onwards. Hoffmann became familiar with the role of Chief Financial Officer (CFO) during this time, working at Mercedes-Benz France in Paris from 2005 to 2008, later at Daimler Buses and EvoBus, and from 2017 at Daimler Greater China in Beijing. Before moving to the copper company in Hamburg, he served as Vice President Treasury and Investor Relations at Mercedes-Benz in Stuttgart from 2020 to September 2024. Hoffmann is married and has two children.

What does that mean in concrete terms?

Market analysts expect the copper market to grow by 22% over the next ten years, with demand even doubling by 2050. Gold is predicted to rise by 26% over the ten-year period, and silver by 10%. We are a multi-metal company and work with 20 metals and elements, including tellurium, which plays an important role in solar technologies. The market for tellurium is expected to grow by over 80% in the next decade, and for tin by around 40%. We are therefore very positive about the demand outlook. It is important that the availability of materials and raw materials is sorted out.

What is the situation?

The supply we see in 2026 is limited, especially in Europe.

Why is that?

Supply is limited because we are seeing stronger competition for available raw materials. In addition, supplies of refined copper from Latin America and Africa are tending to go to the United States rather than Europe. This has to do with regulatory developments in the United States. The so-called Comex/LME arbitrage plays a role here. Market participants assume that copper delivered to customers in the US is more profitable than copper delivered to customers in Europe. We are seeing very low inventories on the London Metal Exchange in Europe. We have seen consistently high spot prices in Europe over the last six months. Production in Europe is somewhat strained. In this respect, high demand from industry is meeting with limited availability from smelters.

Reports recently caused a boost in the share price, stating that Aurubis plans to increase the cathode premium, the surcharge for metal deliveries, to European customers from 228 to 315 dollars per tonne, after keeping it stable in 2024 and 2025. What is your opinion on this?

We do not comment publicly on premiums; they are part of bilateral discussions with our customers. But clearly, the situation described above, where high demand meets limited supply, can have a positive effect on premiums.

We want to maintain our balanced earnings base.

Metal results, smelting fees, premiums and products account for roughly equal shares of your revenues. Will this remain the case, or do you expect any shifts?

We want to maintain our balanced earnings base. The most likely changes are to be expected in the metal result. We believe that contributions here could be strengthened further. On the one hand, we are doing a great deal through our strategic projects to enable us to process even more complex input materials better in the future. If you can process complex materials, you can differentiate yourself from the competition and tap into revenue potential. On the other hand, this can also result in more precious metals, and against the backdrop of very positive forecasts for precious metal prices, this is an opportunity to place even greater emphasis on metal earnings.

You refer to megatrends from which Aurubis is benefiting. Where do you see the greatest potential?

We are benefiting from all the megatrends mentioned above. By 2035, for example, more than 200,000 new wind turbines will be built. Each wind turbine requires around 40 tonnes of copper. We will tap into this potential demand. Significant demand for multi-metals is also expected for other renewable energy sources such as solar panels. We will also participate in this market.

Each wind turbine requires around 40 tonnes of copper.picture alliance / imageBROKER | Lilly

What is the situation with energy infrastructure and data centres?

As far as the demand for new data centres is concerned, forecasts predict that more than 1,000 new data centres will be built worldwide by 2035. Each data centre requires up to 30,000 tonnes of copper. The outlook is also good for us. Electronics is another strong driver. Demand is expected to double by 2035. In addition to copper, this also has an impact on tin, which is used for soldering. Finally, there is currently a considerable amount of discussion in Europe about increasing infrastructure and defence spending. An increase of more than 600 billion dollars would represent a 250% increase compared to 2024. This will also be reflected in higher material consumption. In this respect, we believe that our multi-metal expertise will pay off in the long term.

What is Aurubis' view on the opportunities arising from increased government investment in defence?

Copper, for example, is the second most important element in the US defence industry. In this respect, we also see an opportunity to bring more high-quality copper products to market as a result of growing defence budgets worldwide.

How do you assess the potential for Aurubis?

From our point of view, the potential is included in the market estimates mentioned, which assume a 22% growth in global copper demand over the next ten years.

How will copper demand from the electric mobility sector develop?

Studies predict more than 50 million electric cars by 2035. We have recently seen a slowdown in electric vehicle sales in Europe in terms of battery metals. However, the trend towards electromobility remains unbroken. In this respect, electromobility will also remain a strong pillar of copper demand.

We are sceptical about the role that battery recycling will ultimately play in Europe in relation to developments in China.

You have just announced that you will not be pursuing investment plans for battery recycling. Why is that?

We have very good technology and a functioning pilot and demonstration plant in Hamburg. The recovery rates for valuable battery metals such as lithium are around 95%, which is a top value in an industry comparison. However, we are seeing slower growth in electromobility. We are sceptical about the role that battery recycling will ultimately play in Europe in relation to developments in China. Growth in the European market for black mass (an intermediate product in the recycling of lithium-ion batteries and a granulate consisting of crushed electrodes; ed.) is lower than expected. There is structural uncertainty emanating from car manufacturers that we cannot influence. When answering the question of whether we now want to pursue industrial processing in battery recycling, it was important for us not to become dependent on the further ramp-up curves of electric vehicle sales by major car manufacturers.

Hence the decision to move away from it?

Yes. That's why the path forward is clear for us: we will not continue to invest in battery recycling, but we are prepared to take an asset-light approach and make the expertise we have gained through our work at the demo plant in Hamburg, which is protected by patents, available to partners. Just not in connection with further investments of our own.

What investments were involved?

After investing a small double-digit million euro amount in the demo plant, we asked ourselves whether we wanted to commercialise the business in this field on an industrial scale and invest a larger three-digit million euro sum in the construction of an industrial-scale factory. We took a close look at the market prospects. These have changed significantly, especially for Europe. We therefore decided against further investment in the establishment and expansion of battery recycling.

Is this a snapshot or a long-term decision? You say that electromobility will remain a strong pillar of copper demand.

From today's perspective, we have decided that we do not want to invest further in battery recycling in the coming years and do not want to take on industrial leadership in this area. However, we are happy to share our expertise in battery recycling with potential partners.

Electricity prices play an important role for companies with energy-intensive businesses. How do you assess the framework conditions for your business?

Electricity prices in Germany are too high. In North America, we pay around a third of what we have to pay for electricity in Germany. We are secured in both markets by long-term supply contracts. But for an energy-intensive industry like ours, internationally competitive electricity prices, including all ancillary and infrastructure costs, are of fundamental importance.

What role did the framework conditions play in the decision to expand in the USA?

There are various reasons why we consider it very important for Aurubis to operate and expand in the USA. In September, we started up the first smelting furnace at the new production site, the first multi-metal recycling site of its kind in the USA. We see a great deal of potential in the USA. American industry alone currently requires around 1.8 million tonnes of copper per year. Studies indicate that demand will increase by approximately 30% over the next five years. The USA imports around half of the copper it processes, while at the same time exporting large quantities of multi-metal scrap. From our perspective, the major advantage of recycling is that it can help close the supply gap in the USA much more quickly than the development of new mines.

With its plant in Augusta, Georgia, which went into operation in September, Aurubis sees itself as a pioneer in multi-metal recycling in the US.Aurubis AG

Is that in line with the Trump administration's agenda?

By producing strategically important metals that are needed by the US economy and are essential for the expansion of data centres and AI applications, energy infrastructure, high-tech products and, last but not least, defence capabilities, we are also contributing to the US administration's goals of promoting greater processing of domestic raw materials. In addition to this strategic relevance that the US has for us, factor costs are of course also taken into consideration. And here, energy costs play a major role in our expansion into the US market.

We are very satisfied with the energy costs at our US site, which amount to one third of the energy costs in Germany.

To what extent?

To give you a figure: 10% of the Aurubis Group's costs are energy costs. Energy costs are relatively significant for us. We are very satisfied with the energy costs at our US site, which amount to one third of the energy costs in Germany.

Since August, sectoral import tariffs have been in force in the US, including 50% for copper and copper products. To what extent does the US government's trade policy affect you?

Currently, increased import duties only affect us to a very limited extent in terms of our exports to the US. Exports to the US accounted for around 1% of our total flows in the 2023/24 financial year. Now, thanks to the development of regional capacities at our new US plant, we are well positioned to benefit from this growing market. We see Richmond as a flagship project because it also shows how modern recycling can be established in the US and how we can contribute to strengthening the resilience of American supply chains.

What has the feedback been like?

We are receiving very positive feedback and have noticed that US industry is very interested in working with us to create circular solutions. From the US perspective, the tariffs that have now been imposed are intended to strengthen the resilience of supply chains and create a favourable investment climate. In this respect, our site in Richmond is a strong platform for Aurubis' further growth ambitions in the US.

You have invested around 740 million euros in the first multi-metal recycling plant; it is Aurubis' largest investment outside Europe to date. When you talk about further growth ambitions in the US, what do you mean specifically?

We see three possible options for further expansion in the USA. We can imagine horizontal growth. That would mean creating additional smelting capacity beyond Richmond in other regions of the USA in order to better serve the country.

Another multi-metal recycling plant in the USA?

A second recycling centre further west in the USA is one option. Another option is vertical expansion. This would involve expanding the value chain at the Richmond site and potentially producing higher-value products. The third option could be to enter into advantageous strategic partnerships in the USA. Such partnerships would involve contributing respective expertise and sharing investments.

Under certain conditions, the construction of a primary smelter in the USA could also be considered.

Which option do you favour?

These are three lines of thought. We are still at a very early stage of exploring these options. No further concrete steps are planned at this point. One thing is clear: the US market is of great strategic importance to Aurubis. We can well imagine continuing to grow there in the future.

In which areas are strategic partnerships being considered?

We now have a presence in the USA with a secondary smelter, a recycling smelter. Possible partnerships could be based on vertical expansion along the value chain. Under certain conditions, the construction of a primary smelter in the USA could also be considered. Such a primary smelter would require a larger investment. In this case, we would explore partnerships and also discuss government support.

According to media reports, Aurubis is already in talks with the US government about possible support for a new copper smelter.

We are considering all options, are still in the early stages of exploratory talks and are not prioritising any particular option at this stage. When we talk to government representatives, we generally discuss the fact that, in our view, we are already making an important contribution to making the US copper industry more resilient and that we can envisage doing more. Such discussions generally focus on our ambitions in the US and not yet on specific projects.

How important will the US business be in relation to your business in Europe?

The US business currently accounts for a low single-digit percentage of revenue. It is still too early to give concrete figures on the role that US business will play for Aurubis in the future. The US business, which we have kick-started with an investment of 740 million euros, is becoming increasingly important. However, we will continue to invest in Europe. Around 1 billion euros of our investments in strategic projects totalling 1.7 billion euros are accounted for by projects in Europe.

How much of the current project volume of 1.7 billion euros has been invested?

When we presented our figures for the third quarter in August, we spoke of more than 70%, or around 1.2 billion euros. Now we are three months further on. We will provide an update when we present the 2024/25 financial year balance sheet in December.

Acquisitions are not a priority for Aurubis at present.

Investments are set to decline, but at the same time you want to grow. What role do further acquisitions play for Aurubis?

Acquisitions are not a priority for Aurubis at present. We want to complete the strategic investment projects and are also focusing on ensuring that the earnings contributions from these projects can be realised as planned. We expect these projects to contribute a total of around 260 million euros per year to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) from the 2028/29 financial year onwards. Of this, around 170 million euros is expected to come from Aurubis Richmond alone. We do not rule out acquisitions if interesting opportunities arise. However, M&A transactions are not currently on our agenda.

Does Aurubis have the financial scope for acquisitions?

Yes. We have strategically set ourselves an operating equity ratio of at least 40%. We are currently at over 55%. Maximum net debt in relation to adjusted EBITDA should not exceed three times this figure. We are also currently meeting this target comfortably. We have a strong balance sheet and are very well positioned for acquisitions, even if they are not currently a priority.

If not for acquisitions, what do you intend to use the financial leeway for?

We want to use the cash inflows to make basic investments and maintenance investments. In addition, it is important to us to be able to keep the balance sheet very solid through cash flow. Furthermore, we have decided to increase our dividend payout with a changed dividend policy. For the next financial year 2025/26, we are aiming to pay 30% of adjusted consolidated earnings as dividends. Finally, we want to be prepared if we see opportunities for organic growth or opportunities for more M&A activity in the medium term. If the above is achieved, we can imagine returning excess liquidity to our shareholders, for example in the form of a special dividend.

Sees good prospects as a copper recycler: Aurubispicture alliance/dpa | Marcus Brandt

You are forecasting adjusted pre-tax earnings of 300 to 400 million euros for the 2025/26 financial year, which is in line with the original outlook for the past financial year. What is holding back earnings?

We are seeing tailwinds in the copper premium and metal earnings. The situation is more tense when it comes to smelting fees. Demand for copper products is good, but availability on the concentrate and recycling side is limited. Secondly, we are anticipating a weaker dollar, which will tend to weigh on us in the current financial year. Thirdly, if the strategic projects materialise, depreciation and amortisation will also increase. We expect the additional burden from depreciation and amortisation to be around 50 million euros. Taking all factors into account, we arrive at the forecast earnings range of 300 to 400 million euros. Incidentally, as in the past financial year, our guidance targets the middle of the range. Another important financial goal for us as the management team is to return to positive free cash flow before dividends in the 2025/26 financial year.

In the 2023/24 financial year, one-off charges due to metal theft and fraud cases weighed on earnings. Have the cases been fully resolved?

Financially, yes. Some of them have been dealt with in court. The status of the so-called raw silver broom case is that the perpetrators have been sentenced to prison terms of between three and five years. As far as the manipulation of internal samples in the recycling area and other metal quantities is concerned, the internal investigations have been completed. The results of the investigation have been handed over to the State Criminal Police Office. The investigation is not expected to be concluded in the short term.

Could such incidents happen again at Aurubis?

We have learned from the theft and fraud cases and implemented many measures. To give a few examples: we use drones with infrared cameras for perimeter protection in Hamburg. We have more than doubled the number of cameras at the Hamburg site. We also focus on raising awareness among our employees. We have invested in infrastructure, for example in the new precious metals smelter, and will make further investments to significantly increase the level of security. Many measures have been rolled out across the Group. There is no such thing as 100% security. But we are preparing ourselves to always be one step ahead.

The move is also linked to the goal of becoming a more attractive employer without giving up our proximity to the industrial location.

You are planning to move in Hamburg and relocate your administrative headquarters to HafenCity. Why?

It no longer makes economic sense to continue using the current building. The move will create space for expanding production capacities at the Hamburg site in the future. We made a conscious decision to rent an existing property as a cost-effective solution. The move is also linked to the goal of becoming a more attractive employer without giving up our proximity to the industrial location.

When do you plan to move? And what are your prospects?

The move is planned for the first half of next year, so between April and June 2026. The lease is structured in such a way that we can stay there for the next few decades.