AnalysisEuropean space strategy

Europe's challenges in space

The ESA Ministerial Council meeting must set the course for the future in order to catch up in the field of reusable rockets and satellite constellations. It must also lay the foundations for a common defense strategy in space.

Europe's challenges in space

A national road surrounded by lush bushes. Two huge raptors circle in the bright blue sky. Here and there, unusual road signs appear at the side of the road, warning of exotic animals such as jaguars and anteaters. At first glance, one might think it is a national park. If it weren't for the isolated towers, miles apart, that resemble silos from a distance. In reality, they are launch pads for rockets. They stand on the grounds of the European spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana, one of the most conveniently located rocket launch sites in the world — and the most important guarantor of Europe's free access to space.

„Independent access to space is the motto,“ says Michel Debraine, who is responsible for the Centre Spatial Guyanais (CSG) spaceport in Kourou as a representative of the ESA (European Space Agency). Autonomy and independence are keywords that come up again and again when it comes to European space strategy at the moment. While the US and China, followed by Russia, are vying for supremacy in space, Europe is lagging behind. In order not to miss the boat, the 23 member states must now set the course for the future at the ESA Ministerial Council meeting in Bremen on November 26 and 27.

Joint defense

It is not just a matter of catching up with Space X and Starlink in terms of reusable rockets and satellite constellations. It is also a matter of preparing for NASA's withdrawal from cooperation projects and for Europe's own manned space missions. At the same time, ESA member states must also lay the foundations for a joint defense strategy in space. After all, space is playing an increasingly important role in defense.

French President Emmanuel Macron set the tone at the inauguration of the French Army's space command center in Toulouse. Space „is no longer a protected area, but a battlefield,“ he said. „Today's war is already taking place in space, and tomorrow's war will begin in space,“ Macron is convinced. „Let's be ready. This will be a condition for the success of military operations on the ground, in the air, and on the water.“ Space is already being shaped by increasingly violent and aggressive conflicts involving jammers, dazzlers, and spy satellites. While Russia is apparently pushing ahead with the development of nuclear weapons in space, the US under Donald Trump has decided to invest billions in the „Golden Dome,“ a space-based missile defense system.

Catching up

According to ESA chief Josef Aschbacher, just 15% of public space spending in Europe is allocated to defense, with 85% going to civilian applications. Worldwide, however, the ratio is 50-50. Europe is now becoming increasingly aware of this gap. According to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, Germany plans to allocate a total of 35 billion euros to space projects and a security architecture in space by 2030. Macron, for his part, has just announced plans to spend an additional 4.2 billion euros on space defense during the same period, on top of the 6 billion euros already earmarked for this purpose.

Shifting priorities

The European Resilience from Space (ERS) program, which ESA is currently preparing, also shows how the priorities of European space strategy are shifting: away from purely civilian missions toward systems that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. Purely military applications are also included in the program, which is to cover Earth observation, telecommunications, and PNT (positioning, navigation, timing). It is intended to lay the foundation for a future European initiative to be financed by the European Union's next multiannual financial framework. However, this will not be adopted before 2028.

This makes it all the more important to set the course now so that the program can be implemented as quickly as possible later, argues ESA chief Aschbacher. „In this time of rapid change, there is an urgent need to synchronize European initiatives by coordinating defense capabilities from space, avoiding duplication, and pooling resources for scaling,“ he explains. „We are still too fragmented to guarantee Europe genuine, comprehensive, and autonomous space resilience.“ That has to change.

Budget increase

Aschbacher proposes a budget of just over 1 billion euros for the ERS program. Observers expect ESA ministers to give their approval, even though not all members of the European Space Agency belong to the EU and vice versa. However, the war in Ukraine has served as a wake-up call for everyone. The EU Commission has therefore just proposed a new five-year plan to strengthen defense capabilities, known as „Preserving Peace – Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030.“ This also includes a „European Space Shield.“

The money earmarked for the ERS initiative is only a small amount compared to the total budget, but it is strategically significant, ESA chief Aschbacher told the AJPAE journalists' association in Paris. He wants to convince the member states at the Ministerial Council meeting to invest a total of 22 billion euros in space projects between 2026 and 2028. That would be around 5 billion euros more than in the period from 2023 to 2025. Earth observation accounts for a large part of the hoped-for budget at 30%, while 3.5 billion euros are earmarked for launch vehicles and 3.9 billion euros for space exploration. Compared to NASA's investments in this area, this is still a drop in the ocean. The US space agency spends around half of its annual budget, which most recently stood at 25 billion dollars, on exploration.

Germany and Italy are increasing their contributions

„Europe cannot afford to fall further behind,“ warns Aschbacher. The share of global space investment accounted for by ESA member states has already shrunk, falling from 15% to 10% over the last five years. By comparison, the US share is 60% and China's is now 15%. „That worries me,“ Aschbacher told Les Echos. „If this continues, we run the risk of being excluded from the global space race.“ Space budgets are rising all over the world. At the same time, the sector is growing at around 10% per year, significantly faster than other industries such as transport and energy.

Germany and Italy have already signaled their intention to significantly increase their contributions to the ESA budget. Federal Research Minister Dorothee Bär recently estimated the amount at 5 billion euros. That would be 1.5 billion euros more than before, but less than the 6 billion euros demanded by the space centers in Bremen, Bavaria, and Baden-Württemberg. Italy, on the other hand, could increase its contribution from 3 billion to between 3.5 and 4 billion euros, according to reports.

Increase in production

In contrast, the contribution of France, previously the most important ESA financier, is unlikely to exceed 3.2 billion euros due to the dire state of public finances, according to sources in Paris. Some French industry experts are therefore already voicing fears that France could lose its leading role in the European space industry. It currently has the most important industrial base for this in Europe.

„Our industry is excellent,“ says ESA chief Aschbacher. However, the priority now is to ensure that it does not fall further behind. A look at last year’s rocket launches shows the urgency of the situation. While Europe carried out just three, the US carried out 156 and China 68. „But the launch vehicle crisis is over,“ Aschbacher clarifies. After its first launch in mid-2024, the new European launch vehicle Ariane 6 has already flown successfully into space three times this year. It is scheduled to take off again in December and then eight times next year. Operator Arianespace has planned a maximum rate of nine to ten launches for 2027. „That's the fastest ramp-up for a heavy launch vehicle,“ says ESA chief Aschbacher. Even Elon Musk's SpaceX, often cited as a role model today, did not achieve such rates in the beginning.

Suppliers are prepared

Ralf Stücker, Head of Launcher Exploitation at the Ariane Group and responsible for the Ariane 6 program, is playing a key role in this increase. He is well versed in ramping up complex programs, having worked on the A320 program at the European aircraft manufacturer Aribus before moving to the rocket manufacturing subsidiary of Airbus and Safran. „Our suppliers have all prepared for a production rate,“ he says. That is why he is confident that the planned increase will be successful.

Unlike Airbus, there are no suppliers who have to deliver hundreds of aircraft seats and can therefore cause significant delays in production. „We are dealing with smaller quantities.“ In Kourou, Stücker and his colleagues are currently overseeing the assembly of the upper and lower modules of the Ariane rocket, which is scheduled to launch two Galileo satellites into space before the end of December. They have been transported from Europe to French Guiana by the rocket manufacturer's Canopée glider freighter.

The upper and lower sections of the next Ariane 6 rocket will be assembled in Kourou. Photo: Gesche Wüpper

Of the budget earmarked for launch vehicles, which ESA ministers are currently discussing in Bremen, two-thirds is earmarked for the existing Ariane 6 and Vega C programs, and one-third for their further development. The space agency is preparing for the period after 2035 with its launcher competition. It has made a preliminary selection from among twelve applicants, startups specializing in smaller rockets: Isar Aerospace and Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA) from Germany, Ariane subsidiary MaiaSpace from France, PLD Space from Spain, and Orbex from the UK.

In order to be definitively selected, the candidates must have completed a successful launch by 2027 at the latest. They now need to prove their capacity to grow, says Aschbacher. To be competitive, they will have to build reusable rockets. „Not all of them will make it.“

New competition

On the site of the former launch pad for the Diamant launch vehicle in Kourou, a new multi-launcher facility covering 120 hectares will offer space for up to five private rocket operators. Since 2019, ESA has invested 240 million euros in modernizing and digitizing the spaceport. After seven rocket launches this year, he hopes for 30 in 2030. Isar Aerospace, RFA, PLD Space, and Latitude have all signed preliminary agreements with the French space agency CNES, which owns the 600-square-kilometer CSG property. However, Isar's rocket took off from the Norwegian Andøya Spaceport for its first test flight, which lasted only 30 seconds.

PLD Space has started work in Kourou. MaiaSpace, on the other hand, wants to use the former Soyuz launch pad there. Michel Debraine from the ESA believes that not all startups will come to Kourou. He says that free slots are also crucial for ramping up launches. That is why he sees other small spaceports now being built in Europe as complementary rather than competitive. Especially since all orbits can be reached from Kourou and reusable rockets need space. And there is plenty of that in Kourou.

The launch pad for the Ariane 6 launch vehicle at the CSG spaceport in French Guiana. Photo: Gesche Wüpper