On 9 September the International Motor Show (IAA) will open its doors in Munich. Rarely has the crisis facing German carmakers been so stark. Even after the diesel scandal a decade ago, the situation was not comparable. Profits are shrinking, the global market share of local suppliers has fallen to its lowest level since 2005, and well-paid jobs are vanishing across the industry. A sense of renewal is urgently needed.

The IAA therefore comes at the right moment. While Germany is no longer the hub of the automotive world, the number of companies heading to the fair has risen again. Interest is growing especially among manufacturers. Around 30 carmakers are expected to set up stands in Munich in 2025 – a third more than two years ago. The number of Chinese carmakers has even jumped by 40%. Once again, they will present mostly electric vehicles (EV): models that still play a minor role in sales but are already firmly in the technological Champions League.

The warning from European car associations to the EU – that the targets for phasing out combustion engines are overly ambitious – was welcomed by EV sceptics. The end of Porsche’s plans to produce its own batteries reinforces the narrative of a stalled technological revolution. Yet manufacturers themselves do not doubt that electric drivetrains in passenger cars are technologically superior. Their concern is the slow pace of infrastructure expansion, and the still-high prices in Europe. Sales trends reveal starkly different speeds of transformation: in the first quarter, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for more than a quarter of sales in China, 16% in Europe and just 8% in the US.

The past few years have shown how quickly such trends can accelerate or stall. For a long time, expectations for the European market were more optimistic – based on EU Commission plans – while forecasts for China were more cautious. How fast the e-revolution can unfold is illustrated by Norway. In 2016, new BEVs had a market share of 15.5%. Since then, the share has climbed steadily to 89% last year. By July 2025, BEVs already accounted for 97% of new registrations. The phase-out of combustion engines in Norway is effectively complete.

The last major argument of petrol and diesel fans survives mainly on paper: the longer charging times compared with refuelling. But CATL, the world market leader in batteries, recently unveiled a model that can recharge roughly 500 kilometres of range in just five minutes. A study by PwC’s consulting arm Strategy& expects that by 2030 it will be standard to add about 400 kilometres of range in ten minutes. With drivers no longer needing to travel to distant filling stations, EVs could soon conquer even rural areas – once their prices fall below those of combustion models.

BMW stands out as a credible advocate of this shift. The Munich-based carmaker has often seemed more hesitant in its embrace of electromobility than Mercedes or Audi, but while CEO Oliver Zipse has consistently stressed the group’s technological openness, BMW has still been selling more EVs than its rivals. At the home-town motor show this year, BMW will put a fully electric platform at centre stage. While competitors showcase numerous combustion models, BMW will debut the iX3, the first car of the so-called „Neue Klasse“. With a range of 800 kilometres and charging speeds expected to outpace even the Porsche Macan, its success will largely depend on price. With the IAA, electromobility enters a new phase. Despite all the difficulties in scaling up EVs, one thing is clearer than ever: those who hit the brakes here will lose out globally.