For 15 years, Toyota has weathered every crisis, no matter how severe. Whether it was the millions of recalls in the US due to alleged quality defects, the factory closures after the tsunami in Japan and the floods in Thailand, or the disrupted chip supply chains after the pandemic – Toyota emerged stronger from every crisis.

This almost unbelievable resilience is once again evident in the impact of US import tariffs, which Trump initially increased elevenfold to 27.5% in April and then retroactively reduced sixfold to 15% at the beginning of August. Since the US is also one of Toyota's most important markets, one would assume that Toyota would be hit hard. But that was not the case: the industry leader's sales grew by 7.9% from January to September, almost twice as fast as the overall market. Toyota clearly benefited from pull-forward effects due to the import tariff and the expiry of the electric car subsidy at the end of September. In contrast, VW reported a 9.3% decline in sales for the same period.

The difference between the Japanese and German car giants can be summed up in a simple phrase: Toyota's strength is and remains its extensive range of models with hybrid engines. These models, to borrow the old advertising slogan for the VW Beetle, run and run and run. Volkswagen ignored the demand for hybrid models from the outset and still hopes to put the Japanese in their place by jumping prematurely into the electric age.

This Wolfsburg-based calculation has not worked out so far. And even if electric cars do sell significantly better at some point, the question remains whether Toyota will be able to adapt more quickly. While Volkswagen has focused its own strategy on political pressure for electric cars, Toyota has been able to focus on meeting car buyers where they are. They want to drive „worry-free“, as they say in Japan. That means being able to charge quickly anywhere and being sure that the car will suffer as little depreciation as possible until it is resold. Neither of these conditions apply to electric cars yet.

Of course, Toyota runs the risk of falling victim to an innovation dilemma: the company is not switching to the new technology quickly enough because it does not want to cannibalise hybrid sales. But in China, the Japanese are showing that the risk is low: since its launch, their first electric car, the „bZ3X“, has been the best-selling non-Chinese electric car on the market.