Why Volkswagen etc are difficult patients
When a disease is diagnosed, but the path to a cure is unclear, this can sometimes lead to unhelpful therapeutic approaches. Such a malaise is spreading in the German automotive industry. Suppliers and manufacturers are currently struggling with symptoms associated with the transition to electromobility: sluggish customer demand, persistently high costs, weaknesses in software, and other technical challenges.
The possibility that problems might arise was already clear to the auto companies when their ambitious plans were drawn up years ago. But back then, strong business with combustion engine cars in China still guaranteed high cash flows and profits. That is now history. Electromobility has taken off faster than predicted in China, and slower in Europe.
Time is of the essence
As a result, time is now pressing. Despite significantly more favourable prices, VW only has a share of just over 3% of EVs in China. In the case of combustion engine vehicles, the company has a double-digit percentage share – but business is shrinking. Group CEO Oliver Blume knows that he cannot rely on the status quo. Volkswagen must quickly become more profitable in Europe, especially in its home market of Germany. The wage negotiations, which have been brought forward, therefore have a lot at stake for Blume and Volkswagen. Meanwhile, competitors Mercedes and BMW are also recording declining deliveries in the crucial Chinese market.
The diagnosis is clear. The pressure is growing on all sides. Costs in Europe must come down. Volume brands such as Volkswagen are being hit particularly hard by the transition. But premium brands are also struggling, as the recent huge recall and profit warnings from BMW have shown. In the coming year, fines running into billions if fleet emission targets are not met will be a further sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of auto companies. Renault boss Luca de Meo fears that there might be penalties of up to 15 billion euros for the industry if demand for electric cars in the EU remains at the current level.
Treating the symptoms
Politicians in Brussels and Berlin have long played down the warnings, and seem to have realised only recently that they bear a significant share of the responsibility for the malaise of Europe's core industrial sector. However, instead of thinning out its regulations, and withdrawing particularly harmful provisions, it is frantically tackling the symptoms: The increased tariffs on car imports from China are one example of this. Tax benefits for increasingly expensive electric company cars are another.
The real problems – for example the extremely high bureaucratic burden of the Supply Chain Law, the Batteries Regulation, and high energy and labour costs, are political hot potatoes. They prefer not to tackle them. Instead of putting in place an overall framework for industrial companies, the focus is on regulatory micro-management. This ties up the resources of car manufacturers, which could be better utilised elsewhere, for example, in product development.
Better co-operation needed
Nonetheless, blaming everything on the framework conditions falls short of the mark. The assertion that German car manufacturers are competitive – but not Germany as a business location – is not a reflection of reality. The development of the Chinese market illustrates this.
So what therapeutic approach is needed? First of all, the car industry should be allowed to concentrate more on its recovery than on fulfilling Brussels' requirements. After all, the paperwork in a hospital is not done during the operation. Secondly, it needs to become leaner in order to emerge from the crisis in a sustainably healthier position. And thirdly, genuine co-operation is needed - including with one other. Why are German car manufacturers always trying to catch up on their own, in segments where they are all lagging behind? Only when both car manufacturers and politicians admit that they have contributed to the industry's malaise over the years will there be a real chance of a turnaround? Until then, the German car industry will remain a difficult patient.