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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG

28.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQ

Group.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The

result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an

invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG

ISIN: AT00000VIE62

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 28.11.2025

Target price: EUR 58.00

Target price on sight of: 12 month

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

On Tuesday, FWAG decided against building the 3rd runway, as a result of a

comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. In detail:

Decision to abandon plans for a third runway does not alter its medium- to

long-term growth prospects. The key rationale for an additional runway wa

to circumvent a possible capacity constraint. Yet the sharp rise in aircraft

efficiency over the past two decades has materially expanded effective

capacity. Avg. passengers per aircraft have nearly doubled (71 in 2005 to

139 in 2024), allowing VIE to accommodate significantly higher passenger

volumes without a corresponding increase in aircraft visits. On this basis,

the airport's two-runway system can handle up to roughly 52 million

passengers per year, providing ample headroom relative to expected traffic

levels (NuWays: 32m in FY25e and 34m in FY30e). Even if passenger growth

were to continue at a steady 2-3% CAGR, VIE would only approach its system

limit around 2050e. In reality, the constraint is likely to shift further

out as airlines regularly up-gauge their fleets, e.g. moving from A320

variants (c. 180 seats) to larger A321 configurations (up to 244 seats).

Avoiding high costs, low CAPEX recovery potential and long approval times.

As additional capacity would not attract incremental airlines or passengers,

a third runway would fail to achieve commercially healthy utilization.

Therefore, the 3rd runway would not generate sufficient cash flows to

recover the projected costs of EUR 2bn in CAPEX (runway, terminal building

and surrounding infrastructure). Beyond sharply higher construction costs,

the risk of excessively long approval processes have also posed a risk.

Temporarily higher dividends likely. With EUR 438m in net cash per 9M'25

(eNuW: 443m per Y/E'25e), FWAG has hoarded cash in order to have financial

power if a positive decision would have been made. Now, the substantially

high cash position has become obsolete, in our view. Therefore, we expect a

temporarily higher dividend of EUR 3 per share for FY'25-27e (i.e. EUR 251m pay

out annually, currently 5.4% yield). This would reduce the net-cash position

to EUR 141m by FY'27e, while remaining at healthy levels. After FY'27e, the

south expansion of terminal 3 will also be completed and thus FCFs will

likely grow to EUR 250-300m p.a. (eNuW), suggesting that the conservative

dividend policy (payout ratio of currently „more than 60%“) could be

loosended to higher dividends for longer, in our view.

As we have not reflected a 3rd runway on our estimates, they remain

unchanged, except for our dividend assumption and a EUR 56m write-off (eNuW)

in Q4'25e on capitalized expenses in relation to the project. However, thi

has no effect on our DCF-based PT of EUR 58.00. Therefore, we reiterate our

HOLD recommendation as upside remains limited, in our view. However,

dividend oriented investors should consider taking advantage of thi

(temporarily) higher yield.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=a457fdda5a92e9a09f3bb919c7f459c0

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschlu

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2237184 28.11.2025 CET/CEST

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