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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

29.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQ

Group.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The

result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an

invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE

ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 29.08.2025

Target price: EUR 11.00

Target price on sight of: 12 month

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

tonies released a solid set of Q2 results but were impacted by growth

investments in light of the launch of TB2. In detail:

Q2 sales grew by 16% yoy to EUR 79m. Regionally, North America grew by 14% yoy

to EUR 31m (39% of group sales), whereas Rest of World maintained its strong

momentum and grew by 74% yoy to EUR 16m (21% of group sales) especially driven

by France, UK, Australia and New Zealand while DACH remained flat yoy at EUR

32m (40% of group sales). On a product group level, sales from tonies grew

by +22% yoy to EUR 60m on the back of 7% more units sold and a 14% higher ASP

of EUR 10.03, mainly thanks to price increases in the USA since May 2025. On

the other hand, the sales from tonieboxes declined by 14% yoy to EUR 15.8m

with ASP flat yoy and 14% less units sold, as retailers have reduced

inventory build up in anticipation of TB2.

On an H1 basis, which includes are more detailed profitability picture,

gross profit after licensing costs grew faster than sales by 29% yoy to EUR

104m (58.8% margin, up 4.1pp yoy) mainly thanks to lower relative COG

(-3.6pp yoy sales ratio), but also due a better mix effect affecting

licensing costs (-0.4pp yoy). This effect is a result of the aforementioned

growth of tonies and decline of tonieboxes, as tonies in general carry a

much higher gross margin than tonieboxes but also benefitted from the price

increase (as of May 1st in the US). Consequently, contribution profit

expanded drastically by 38% yoy to EUR 76m (42.9% margin, up 5.6pp yoy) on the

back of further logistic efficiency gains due to better scale.

On the other hand, adj. EBITDA was nonetheless impacted by higher personell

costs (+27% yoy; 18.9% sales ratio, up 1pp yoy) which led to an adj. EBITDA

of at EUR 3.8m (-4% yoy; 2.1% margin, down 0.5pp yoy). This should stem mainly

from the personnel ramp up and incurred development costs of TB2.

Following more tariff clarity, tonies issued a FY 25 guidance. Sales are

expected to grow by more than 25% yoy (before FX) to above EUR 600m. Thereof,

NA should grow by 30% yoy. Adj. EBITDA margin is seen between 6.5-8.5% in

FY'25e.

A key highlight was launch of the „Toniebox 2“ (TB2). Many new feature

(e.g. „Tonieplay“, sleep timer, sun alarm, .) are aimed to increase usage by

adding interactivity to the linear audio, thus increase lock in effects and

platform loyalty, which creates the basis for higher recurring revenues.

Moreover, TB2 doubles the addressable market by expanding the age-group to

1-9 (prev. 3-7 with TB1) in two ways: (1) the new „My First Tonies“ are

especially designed and approved for toddlers, giving parents an earlier

touchpoint to get to know the tonies ecosystem and build trust with the

brand and (2) the interactive audio and games-like features of „Tonieplay“

(that only work on the TB2) gives parents in today's tech saturated

childhoods an opportunity to have a screen-free toy until the age of 9+, for

which age group screen-based toys are still not healthy. All in all, TB2 i

seen as the largest product innovation since the start in 2016, create

strong up- and cross-selling opportunities and should thus play an important

role of continuing tonies' growth ahead.

Against this backdrop, we recommend to BUY with a PT of EUR 11.00, based on

DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=3f6b9a1f527f488a6ef6a56033aac86f

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschlu

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2190414 29.08.2025 CET/CEST

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