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Original-Research: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungsholding AG - from East

Value Research GmbH

05.12.2025 / 08:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQ

Group.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The

result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an

invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Warimpex Finanz- und

Beteiligungsholding AG

Company Name: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungsholding AG

ISIN: AT0000827209

Reason for the research: Update

from: 04.12.2025

Target price: EUR 1.02

Target price on sight of: 12-month

Last rating change:

Analyst: Adrian Kowollik

1. Warimpex (WXF) continues to underperform against our forecasts. While it

9M/25 results were significantly above last year on a like-for-like basis,

they render our previous full-year 2025E estimates unrealistic. On the

positive side, cost discipline and a strong office rental business in Poland

- where real wages are growing at over 4% and GDP growth is expected to be

3.2-3.5% in 2025E-2026E - stood out. On the negative side, the weak hotel

business was notable; we believe that in 2024 it was almost entirely

supported by fees WXF received from the city of Darmstadt for lodging

Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, net debt further increased (EUR 145m vs.

EUR 140.4m in H1/25). Given the high net gearing of 212.1% and the current

state of the Polish real estate market, which experienced a prolonged

year-long boom, we find it risky that WXF plans to finance 80% of the cost

related to the MOG31 residential project in Cracow with debt. Our updated

valuation model, now based on a weighted average of a SOTP valuation (50%,

including an NPV model of the MOG31 project and a NNNAV) and a peer group

comparison (50%), reflects lower estimates for 2025E-2026E and derives a

12-months PT of EUR 1.02 (prev. EUR 1.13). The MOG31 residential project -

comprising over 8,100 sqm of premium apartments, retail space, and parking

lots -received its building permit in October, and we expect completion by

the end of 2027E.

2. In 9M/25, Warimpex generated revenues of EUR 14.8m (-6.2% y-o-y), EBITDA

of EUR 1m (+17.1% y-o-y), and net income (excl. one-offs) of EUR -4.4m (vs.

EUR -12.4m). The Investment Properties segment contributed EUR 10.5m (+12%

y-o-y; EBITDA margin of 43.7% vs. 44.1% in 9M/24), the Hotels segment EUR

3.2m (-29%; EBITDA margin of -4.8% vs. 13.2%), and Development & Service

EUR 1m (-43.9%; EBITDA margin of -333.2% vs. -211.5%). Expenses directly

related to revenues declined by 12.1% y-o-y, and the net financial result

improved by EUR 1.1m, signalling better cost control and lower financing

costs. However, net gearing (212.1%; H1/25: 200.7%; 31/12/2024: 187%) and

equity ratio (29%; H1/25: 30.3%; 31/12/2024: 31.8%) deteriorated further,

which remains concerning.

3. Based on the 9M/25 results, we have cut our estimates for 2025E - and for

2026E-2027E due to base effects. While Warimpex will likely receive

prepayments for apartments at its MOG31 project during construction, we

anticipate that related revenues and profits will be recognized only in

2028E. For full-year 2025E, we now forecast revenues of EUR 19.1m (prev. EUR

20.4m), EBITDA of EUR 1.2m (prev. EUR 1.7m), EBIT of EUR -150k (prev. EUR

1.2m), and net income of EUR -5.9m (prev. EUR -4.8m).

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=5f0a07c512f7c93c64fd51317f5818cc

For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/

Contact for questions:

Adrian Kowollik

Email: ak@eastvalueresearch.com

Tel.: +49 30 20609082

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2240826 05.12.2025 CET/CEST

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