Covestro revises full year guidance downwards
Mr Baier, Covestro has made a poor start to the new financial year. Even if the one-off effect is factored out, you ended up below the previous year's weak figures. Why is that?
Last year, we had a massive increase in volumes in the first quarter. We have maintained this. The plant closure in Maasvlakte, Netherlands, has cost us two percentage points in terms of volume. Nevertheless, the plant closure was the right decision because we benefited from it in terms of earnings.
If we exclude the restructuring costs of 108 million euros, we are almost at the previous year's level. This is a good starting point, even if we have different expectations for margin development.
You have reduced the guidance for the year as a whole. Does this mean that the recovery expected for the second half of the year has been pushed back yet again?
We had given a broad guidance for the operating result of between 1 and 1.6 billion euros. To reach the upper end, we would have needed a relevant recovery in the second half of the year. If you look at the tariffs issue, it is difficult to give an estimate in the current volatile environment. There are many companies that no longer provide any guidance at all. We believe that a very positive development in the second half of the year has become far less likely.
In the USA, we will probably get some tailwind.
Christian Baier
What is the impact of the US tariffs?
The direct effects are limited. However, the indirect effects are far more relevant, whether in terms of global economic growth or the flow of goods. Let me give you an example: a major competitor from China has previously sold its products in the USA. These products are now more likely to remain in China or come to Europe. This has positive effects on prices in the USA, but negative price effects on the rest of the world.
Is the decline in sales in Asia-Pacific of over 5% in the first quarter already a first harbinger?
Not in this case. This is due to the plant closure in Maasvlakte. A material part of the production was sold in Asia-Pacific.
The products from China will presumably flood the European market. Are your products sufficiently „high-end“ for this to affect you less?
Around half of our business consists of Solutions & Specialties, in other words innovative, highly specialised customer solutions, and half of Performance Materials, in other words more mass-produced products. Here we are in fierce competition with very few rivals. In the USA, we will probably get some tailwind. It is impossible to say to what extent there will be a supply surplus elsewhere.
Roughly speaking, each one third of your business is split between the three regions of the world. Is it possible to estimate which effect will predominate?
We analyse this question closely. A purely mathematical calculation does not work at this point. The positive effect in the USA can certainly turn out to be relevantly large. On the other hand, there may be massive price pressure in other regions.
To what extent are you concerned about China? The tariffs may have a negative impact on domestic demand there.
I cannot yet refute this consideration. We will find a balance in the market again over time. However, it is impossible to say today what the new balance will look like. We are looking at what the main demand drivers are in the respective domestic markets. In China, we have a high demand for our products. A very large proportion of these products remain in China. China and Asia remain one of the most attractive markets for us. We are very positive in the medium to long term.
The fact that the focus is to be placed on the economy is a positive signal in our view.
Christian Baier
What do you expect from the new German government?
We expect a common direction in a broad-based coalition. That is a great opportunity. The fact that the focus is to be placed on the economy is a positive signal in our view. The topics of reducing energy costs and cutting bureaucracy are an opportunity to increase competitiveness. We are hoping for stringent implementation.
The buzzwords have been circulating for a long time. What makes you confident that something will change now?
The lessons learnt in the past can have a learning effect for us all. And the conviction that we need a strong economy in order to have a strong country has certainly grown even more over the past three years. Now the appropriate framework conditions need to be put in place quickly.