The inevitable is drawing nearer. For weeks, there have been mounting indications that the European Union will include a ban on imported diamonds from Russia in its twelfth package of sanctions. A corresponding statement from the G7, the group of leading industrialized nations, including Germany and France, is expected to serve as a blueprint.

"Russian diamonds are not forever," EU Council President Charles Michel paraphrased a famous James Bond title back in September. Belgium's Prime Minister, Alexander de Croo, added a few weeks ago that they were on the verge of finalizing a diamond tracing system. An EU diplomat, as quoted by Reuters, stated that implementing it required the ultimate blessing of the G7.

Russia is considered the world's most significant producer of rough diamonds. The Flemish port city of Antwerp, in turn, is by far the most important hub for global diamond markets. As a result, the Belgian government is under pressure from the industry not to push sanctions too far. There is a concern that Russian exporters and their business partners could shift to Dubai and circumvent the diamond ban.

For Russia's enablers in Antwerp, the noose is tightening. The company Grib, which is based in Antwerp, has landed on a US Treasury Department sanctions list due to its Russia-related business. Jewelry retailers like Tiffany and Richemont are looking to preempt potential sanctions by refraining from using Russian diamonds or inspecting their supply chains accordingly.

However, the twelfth package of sanctions won't be a walk in the park, whether there is G7 agreement on diamond tracing or not. The technical details are one thing, political alignment is another. Brussels has become accustomed to pushback from Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán against further support for Ukraine. With Robert Fico's election victory in Slovakia, achieving the necessary consensus in foreign policy will become even more challenging. Fico is aligned with Orbán's anti-Ukraine stance.

The sanctions policy against Russia's criminal aggression in Ukraine is not only fueling diamond fever in Brussels. The EU Commission is also targeting revenues from frozen Russian state assets. Before the summer break, EU member states were hesitant due to legal uncertainties, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz calling the operation "terribly complicated." EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had to put her proposal on hold.

Now, there's suddenly movement in the matter. During the EU summit, Scholz and the other heads of state and government urged the European Commission to make "decisive progress." Their mandate: the Commission is tasked with finding ways to redirect income from frozen assets "to support Ukraine and its recovery and reconstruction." This should be done in coordination with partners and in compliance with European and international law, as quickly as possible.

Von der Leyen wasted no time: "We are working on a proposal that initially focuses on so-called windfall profits. These windfall gains are already significant, and the idea is to aggregate them and then channel them through the EU budget to Ukraine for its reconstruction."

At the securities settlement company Euroclear, based in Brussels, Russian assets worth around 200 billion euros are frozen. Euroclear reported special profits of 3 billion euros for the first three quarters, for which it pays nearly 800 million euros in taxes. The Belgian government has announced its intention to transfer these taxes to Ukraine. However, there is currently no legally clear mechanism in place for the remaining 2.2 billion euros.