„The European space industry is too fragmented“
Mr. Toepfer, the challenges for the aviation industry are increasing. How is Airbus affected?
Airbus had a good operational start to the year. The supply chain has significantly improved overall, and we’re on a solid track to meet our targets. But that doesn’t mean all challenges are behind us. We still have catching up to do, especially when it comes to engines and cabin interiors – particularly with CFM, Pratt & Whitney, and business class seating. As a result, we currently have so-called gliders – aircraft that are complete except for the engines.
And now the geopolitical environment is adding to the pressure.
Exactly. In 2025, new issues have emerged that we hadn’t previously anticipated – such as US tariffs. That adds more uncertainty.
How are the US tariffs affecting Airbus?
The direct impact of the current tariffs is manageable for us – as long as they stay at the current level.
So Airbus is sticking to its 2025 outlook?
Our forecast remains unchanged. As long as there’s no significant deterioration after July 9, when the tariffs take effect, we’ll be on track to meet our targets for the year.
What would the tariff burden look like in a manageable scenario?
Assuming the tariffs remain unchanged, the financial impact would stay within the normal range of fluctuations in our financial results. Overall, we can absorb it well.
How are you preparing for a possible increase in tariffs?
Preparation is difficult. Fortunately, we’re very globally positioned in terms of production. We have strong operations in the US, China, and of course Europe. We’re also making a greater effort than before to ensure that we’re not dependent on single suppliers – ideally sourcing every part from at least two different regions.
How are your suppliers affected by the tariffs?
At the moment, we’re not seeing the supply chain faltering because of the tariffs. Some tariffs are paid by us, others by our suppliers. But overall, the system is meeting the challenge.
European NATO countries are significantly increasing defence spending. How does that impact Airbus?
It’s too early for revenue forecasts, but we’re seeing record-high order intake levels. We’re currently receiving numerous inquiries from European defence ministries asking what products we can deliver and how quickly up to 2029. Compared to ammunition manufacturers, it takes longer for this to show up in our revenues.
What does that mean for Airbus’s long-term revenue structure?
Revenue from our Defence and Space division will gradually increase, but this won’t have an immediate impact on our figures.
Does that mean higher margins for Airbus overall?
Our mid-term goal for Defence and Space is to achieve a mid-to high-single-digit margin. The division is still below the group average, mainly because we’re still digesting past issues – especially in the space business. Once that’s resolved, the division’s EBIT margin should approach the group level.
Does this mean that the division Defence and Space is currently at a low-single-digit margin?
Last year, it was actually negative due to impairments. Excluding those, the margin would have been low to mid-single-digit. Our ambition is to exceed 1 billion euros in EBIT for Defence and Space by 2028.
Is defence generally less profitable than commercial aircraft?
We do have contracts in the defence portfolio that don’t meet margin targets – especially in satellites. These will take another five years or so to work through. But structurally, there’s no reason why defence should generate lower margins than commercial aircraft.
What’s the status of your troubled satellite business?
We’ve conducted a comprehensive review and identified the problems at Space Systems. We’re now systematically working on a turnaround – that’s our top priority, and we’re already seeing early positive results. Only by getting our internal setup right can Airbus contribute effectively at the European level to make the space sector more future-proof. We’re in exploratory talks with Thales and Leonardo. The European space industry is too fragmented, which undermines our competitiveness globally. That’s why we believe closer collaboration among European players is the right answer – something also recommended in the Draghi Report.
There’s speculation the talks could fail due to the long timeline.
We’re making good progress, but it shouldn’t be surprising that such a transaction is very complex. It takes time to reach an agreement, but we’re currently optimistic.
Why is it so complex?
Because we’re dealing with three different players across Europe, and due diligence simply takes time. It’s not trivial. Our goal remains to reach a decision before the end of the year.
How is the satellite business transformation progressing? Do you expect any further write-downs?
We don’t expect that – though in our business, small negative and positive surprises can always happen.
And the military transporter A400M?
The A400M has historically been cash-negative. But in 2025, it will break even for the first time. Starting in 2026, the programme will make a positive contribution. The years of heavy burdens are behind us. We’re satisfied with that progress.
Even if there are no new export customers?
We’re working on potential exports and have several irons in the fire. In the meantime, we’re pleased that France and Spain have brought forward some of their aircraft deliveries. That brings stability to our order book for the next few years. We now need to ensure we have enough orders for 2029 and beyond to maintain our target production rate of eight aircraft per year. Signs are positive: European nations are recognising the strategic importance of the A400M and are contributing to its continuation.
Do you see other opportunities for defence sector cooperation?
The most obvious is in the space business. Long term, Europe must also ask whether it has too many defence platforms – like in next-generation fighter jets or tanks.
Thirteen years ago, Airbus tried to merge with BAE Systems, but the deal failed. Is there a new chance for another attempt?
That failure had very specific reasons. The geopolitical situation has changed dramatically since then, as has the competitive landscape. Take the space sector: A new, strong US competitor has entered the market – something we didn’t have 13 years ago. When discussing consolidation, you always need to look at the relevant market.
Is that a call for a new merger attempt?
Definitely not. The situation has evolved.
US President Donald Trump’s policies threaten to weaken the dollar. What would that mean for Airbus?
The dollar is crucial for us, as much of our revenue is in dollars while not all costs are. Natural hedging helps – having dollar-denominated costs, US suppliers, and dollar-based contracts. That covers much of our exposure. We hedge the rest over the medium term with financial instruments.
How well are you currently hedged against a weaker dollar?
We have good visibility for 2025. For 2025, 2026, and much of 2027, we’ve already achieved strong hedge ratios. Of course, if the dollar remains weak in the long term, we’ll have to continue improving our competitiveness.
Are you reconsidering your US sites because of Trump’s policies?
No. The US is an important market for us, with many sites and over 5,000 employees. Mobile, Alabama, is key – with soon a total of three final assembly lines: one for the A220 and a second for the A320 family from 2026. We also have important helicopter sites in the US. All of this helps us currently.
Is the current dollar exchange rate favorable for Airbus?
We don’t take a position on whether the rate is good or bad. It’s hard to predict where it’s headed. For us, stability is what matters.
How is the exchange rate affecting your suppliers?
The key is staying close to all suppliers, large and small, to give them visibility. Financial issues are very rare.
For your planned takeover of parts of Spirit AeroSystems, Airbus will now receive a higher compensation than initially planned.
Spirit supplies two critical work packages for the A220 and A350 programs. We didn’t want Boeing to take responsibility for that, had they acquired Spirit. The scope of what we’re buying has grown – it now also includes Prestwick. These work packages are loss-making, so we’re receiving 439 million dollars in compensation.
What’s Airbus doing to stop the losses?
We’ve sent several dozen employees to those sites – especially Kinston in North Carolina and Belfast in Northern Ireland – to drive improvements.
When will the acquisition close?
We’re targeting the third quarter. After that, we’ll integrate IT systems, invest, and restructure quality management. There’s currently a lot of rework. The integration will take time – typically about two years.
By the end of the decade, Airbus also faces a decision on the A320 successor. How are you preparing?
We’re working on key technology building blocks – engine type, whether wings should fold or not, cabin materials, and industrial design. The goal is to cut fuel consumption by another 20–30% compared to the A320neo.
What’s the timeline?
We want the technology components finalised by the end of the decade, with entry into service in the second half of the next decade.
Past programmes cost around 10 billion dollars. How expensive will the A320 successor be?
That depends on the technologies. But if the technologies deliver a real leap forward, the development costs will be worth it. And we can afford it.
The hydrogen aircraft announced in 2020 for 2035 has now been delayed.
We’re continuing our efforts in this area at full speed. But we’ve realised that the ecosystem around us isn’t as developed as we had hoped. That made our original timeline unfeasible. Development will take longer – it’s now expected sometime in the 2040s.
You’ve just raised your dividend payout ratio but ruled out share buybacks for now.
We’re not fundamentally ruling out share buybacks, but such programmes usually run over several years. That requires visibility – and we don’t have that right now. But we’re committed to enhancing shareholder returns.
How will your dividend policy develop?
We aim for sustainable dividend growth. That’s why we’re raising the upper end of our dividend payout range from currently 30–40% to 30–50%.