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Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. - from GBC AG

21.07.2025 / 10:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQ

Group.

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The

result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an

invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

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Classification of GBC AG to Almonty Industries Inc.

Company Name: Almonty Industries Inc.

ISIN: CA0203987072

Reason for the research: Research Comment

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: 8.25 CAD

Target price on sight of: 31.12.2026

Last rating change:

Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Almonty Industries Inc. vs. MP Materials Corp.: A Significant Valuation Gap

in Critical Mineral

Almonty Industries Inc. and MP Materials Corp. are both players in the

critical minerals space, supplying materials vital for modern industries and

strategic applications. Almonty focuses on tungsten, a metal essential for

defense, electronics, and industrial tooling, while MP Materials is a

leading U.S. producer of rare earth elements, particularly neodymium and

praseodymium, used in permanent magnets for electric vehicles, wind

turbines, and military technologies.

Recently, Almonty has been progressing the development of its flagship

Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea, which is expected to start production

in late 2025 and potentially double capacity by 2027 through a planned

expansion. Meanwhile, MP Materials continues to operate the Mountain Pa

mine in California and has begun integrating downstream into magnet

manufacturing to capture more value from its rare earth output. Both

companies are strategically important, as Western nations aim to reduce

dependence on China for critical minerals supply chains.

Despite these parallels in strategic relevance, a significant valuation

discrepancy exists between the two companies when measured against future

EBITDA. Almonty's market capitalization currently stands at 1.20 billion,

far below MP Materials at 5.08 billion. Yet, Almonty's EBITDA forecast

paint a picture of explosive growth. From 105.18 million in 2026, Almonty'

EBITDA is expected to more than triple to 384.55 million by 2028. In

contrast, MP Materials' EBITDA grows from 125.20 million in 2026 to only

190.92 million in 2028.

This growth differential is starkly reflected in valuation multiples.

Almonty trades at a 11.4x multiple of its 2026 estimated EBITDA, falling

dramatically to just 3.1x by 2028. Meanwhile, MP Materials commands much

higher multiples across the forecast period: 78.7x in 2026, 51.5x in 2027,

and 51.6x in 2028. By 2028, despite Almonty projecting roughly double the

EBITDA of MP Materials, it trades at only about one-seventeenth of MP'

EBITDA multiple.

The explanation likely lies in investor perceptions. MP Materials enjoys the

visibility of being an established U.S. producer with proven operations and

government support, and benefits from its NYSE listing and active investor

following. Almonty, by contrast, remains a development story, carrying the

execution risk of bringing Sangdong fully online and scaling its operation

as planned.

Nevertheless, the magnitude of the current discount appears excessive if

Almonty achieves its targets. Trading at just 3.1 times projected 2028

EBITDA, Almonty offers investors significant upside potential relative to MP

Materials. Based on MP Materials' EBITDA multiples, Almonty's valuation

could be considerably higher: applying MP's multiples to Almonty's earning

would imply a valuation of around 8.27 billion for 2026, approximately 10.38

billion for 2027, and as high as 19.84 billion for 2028. This suggests that

if Almonty were valued in line with MP Materials on an earnings multiple

basis, its market capitalization could increase fifteenfold from current

levels.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=89fff6833dd388865009d6e5be18ce6c

Contact for questions:

GBC AG

Halderstraße 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

++++++++++++++++

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach §34b Abs. 1 WpHG und FinAnV

Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher

Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher

Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung

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Completion: 18.07.2025 (1:40 p.m.)

First distribution: 21.07.2025 (10:00 a.m.)

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2171910 21.07.2025 CET/CEST

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