US President Donald Trump's erratic policies are also having an impact on staffing requirements in the banking sector, observes Andreas Krischke, Managing Director of Indigo Headhunters. On the one hand, securities trading and the defence sector in corporate banking are benefiting from the volatility and uncertainty, and are adding positions. On the other hand, private equity is finding it harder to sell portfolio companies, which is weighing on the M&A sector. According to Krischke's assessment, jobs are more likely to be reduced there.

Another aspect of Trump's second presidency is that European banks now have opportunities to recruit staff – namely to attract emigrated managers to return home. „We are seeing European employees of banks in the USA saying that now is a good time to switch continents. We get a lot of letters to that effect,“ Krischke reports from his own experience. He would not describe it as a trend, but the connection is clear: „It is noticeable that bank employees want to leave the USA because they do not agree with Trump's policies", he says. They are even prepared to take a pay cut in order to return to Europe.

„The culture is changing in the USA,“ says Krischke. „Trump's measures are simply too radical to be tolerated.“ This was nowhere near as pronounced during his first term in office from 2017 to 2021. „Nobody would have expected European companies to abandon their diversity strategy a year and a half ago. Many people don't want to go along with this and are saying: we've had enough.“

Trump's actions are causing difficult times for investment bankers in particular. The market fluctuations and uncertainty caused by his unpredictable policies are making valuations more difficult, which is leading to IPOs being postponed or canceled. Krischke assumes that a consolidation of the market is imminent because institutions will have to decide whether they want to continue to go all out in the M&A business and invest accordingly or whether they want to say goodbye.

He also believes that clients' demands have increased. „You have to have the infrastructure to be able to win mandates. That means a major investment. If it doesn't pay off, it will be sold off.“

The employment situation looks more favourable in the securities services and trading sectors, where an increase in capacity and jobs can be expected in view of the increased workload. This is because Trump's back and forth, not only in terms of customs policy, often triggers strong market reactions and trading movements, and it is also apparent that a large number of investors are realigning their portfolios by tending to sell US equities and turn to European stocks instead.

According to Krischke, changes are also emerging in the defence sector. Corporate bankers who cover the defence industry are now increasingly in demand. This is noticeable in the corporate sectors of both private commercial banks and Landesbanks. „When it comes to restoring Europe's defence capability, the financial industry naturally also plays a strong role", he says.

The need for investment is immense, with armaments companies such as Rheinmetall or Hensoldt and many SMEs ramping up their capacity. The banks are happy to provide financing because they know that it is politically desirable and supported, and the likelihood of loans defaulting is therefore low. In general, Krischke says he has noticed a change in public perception, starting with the Russian war in Ukraine, and even more so with the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, who has sown doubts as to whether the USA is still committed to Western security.

Krischke also perceives a certain spirit of optimism in the country. „Even if there's a lot of talk about crises, the bottom line is that I'm much more optimistic now than I was at the beginning of the year.“ Since the general election, there has been more clarity and predictability in the country, and the public and policymakers have been looking ahead – detached from the Trump issue.