And now bad weather too. On the German market, everything seems to have conspired against beer producers. As if rising costs weren't enough of a burden, they cannot respond adequately to falling demand and fierce competition with price increases.

Apart from the first few days, when temperatures were well above 30 degrees Celsius, July in Germany was milder than it has been for many years. Above all, however, it was wet. It felt like rain showers followed rain showers throughout the entire month. And August started out the same way. This is devastating for breweries. This is because people like to meet outdoors in the summer – in large beer gardens or small garden restaurants, at the market square or for barbecues in the garden. And what are people drinking? Of course, Pilsner, wheat beer, Alt or craft beer, in other words, beer that is produced in modest quantities by small breweries. Unless the weather throws a spanner in the works.

Many German breweries are now likely to revise their sales forecasts downward – both for the summer quarter and for the year as a whole. Even if the weather improves from now on, the sales gap that has been created cannot be closed. Beer producers in this country are already under considerable pressure. Sales have been declining for many years. According to figures from the German Brewers' Association, per capita sales fell to 88.0 liters in 2024 (previous year: 89.3). This is the lowest level since records began. However, when broken down into alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, it can be seen that per capita consumption of non-alcoholic beer has risen from 8.0 to 8.3 liters, which is a record high. So it is only the traditional alcoholic beer that is being drunk less and less.

In Germany today, young people in particular are drinking more mineral water, energy drinks, and fruit juices than in the past. When they do drink beer, it is often as a mixed drink. Older people drink beer less frequently anyway. This leads to an overall decline in sales of traditional alcoholic varieties. Following the trend toward healthier or „exotic“ beer varieties, breweries are launching new brands and increasing their output of non-alcoholic beer or mixed drinks at the expense of classic varieties. The problem is that the increasing sales of such products do not compensate for the losses in traditional beer sales.

In this country, the Radeberger Group is some way ahead of TCB Beteiligungsgesellschaft (7.5 million hectoliters) in terms of output (10.4 million hectoliters). However, in the highly regarded ranking of the world's largest beer producers compiled by hop trader Barth Haas, this is only enough for 23rd and 28th place. Oettinger, Paulaner, Krombacher, and Bitburger follow closely behind in 30th to 33rd place. Two companies that had occasionally made it into the top 40 in recent years are not represented in the 2024 ranking: Veltins and Warsteiner.

The Radeberger Group, which belongs to the Oetker Group, has around 60 beer brands in its portfolio. The best-known brands include Radeberger, Jever, Binding, Ur-Krostitzer, Schöfferhofer, Clausthaler (non-alcoholic), as well as the mineral water brand Selters and the lemonade manufacturer Bionade. In addition to seven brands (including Paulaner and Hacker-Pschorr), the Paulaner Group also owns the private brewery Schmucker from the Odenwald region. Krombacher not only produces the brand of the same name, but also holds the distribution and trademark rights for Schweppes, Dr Pepper, and Orangina for the German market. The Bitburger Group includes the Bitburger, König Pilsener, Köstritzer, and Licher brands, among others.

While Radeberger, Paulaner, Krombacher, and Bitburger are so-called brand manufacturers that invest a lot of money in advertising and image, TCB (Gilde in Hanover, Frankfurter Brauhaus, Feldschlößchen in Dresden) and Oettinger focus on the entry-level price segment with their cheap beers. Oettinger offers numerous types of beer under this brand. In contrast, TCB, based in Frankfurt (Oder), which holds stakes in various breweries and beverage companies, describes itself as Europe's largest private label beer producer. Many beer brands come from TCB breweries.

Consumers are generally very loyal to „their“ beer brand. However, rising prices and a negative environment (economic expectations, political and social climate) can cause even regular customers to turn their backs on their brand and switch to cheaper beers. Breweries are aware of this risk, which is why they are currently only implementing price increases when they are unavoidable in order to cover costs. However, this conflicts with the goal of utilizing capacities to a minimum, because the same principle tends to apply here: the higher the price, the lower the demand.

In addition, breweries in Germany are burdened by another peculiarity: According to Marktguru, beer was once again by far the most frequently advertised product group in food retail in the first half of 2025. The industry is anything but happy about this. From the perspective of Edeka, Rewe, Lidl, Aldi & Co., this is understandable, as beer is a sales magnet. But the result is that customers become accustomed to discount campaigns. According to market researcher NIQ, consumers of the major pilsner brands buy about two-thirds of their bottled beer at promotional prices. Against this backdrop, price increases such as those recently announced by Krombacher and Veltins are difficult to implement.

The major brewery groups in Germany are all privately owned; current results are not published. The situation is different for the world's largest beer companies. Anheuser-Busch Inbev (AB Inbev), Heineken, and Carlsberg are publicly traded. However, they are hardly affected by the weak summer business in Germany so far; they are significantly underrepresented in the world's sixth-largest beer market. Only AB Inbev has a brand, Beck's, that is among the ten best-selling in this country. Nevertheless, the numbers 1, 2, and 4 in Barth Haas' ranking have no reason to celebrate, as sales are now beginning to crumble elsewhere as well.

Last week, AB Inbev and Heineken published their half-year reports. Neither was well received. On the day of publication, Heineken's share price fell by more than 8% on Euronext Amsterdam (Monday) and AB Inbev's by almost 10% on Euronext Brussels (Thursday); wiping out more than 10 billion euros in market capitalization for the industry leader. AB Inbev reported that group-wide sales volumes in the second quarter fell by 2% organically, that is, excluding currency effects and acquisitions and divestitures of business units. In contrast, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a slight increase on average.

This continued the weak sales trend of previous calendar quarters. The most significant losses were in South America and the Asia-Pacific region. In Brazil alone, where the Leuven-based group distributes brands such as Brahma and Skol and is the market leader, beer sales slumped by 9%. The group attributed this to bad weather. And in China – another difficult market due to declining consumer sentiment – volumes across the entire beverage portfolio fell by more than 7%.

In addition, the company felt the impact of unfavorable exchange rate developments on its sales: revenue fell by around 2% to approximately 15 billion dollars. At constant exchange rates, it would have climbed by 3%. Nevertheless, thanks to cost savings, net profit climbed by almost 14% to 1.68 billion dollars, and CEO Michel Koukeris emphasized that AB InBev is likely to achieve its annual targets, even if the environment remains „dynamic.“

AB Inbev owns more than 500 brands. In Germany, Franziskaner and Corona are particularly well known alongside Beck's. There are also regional brands such as Hasseröder, Löwenbräu, Spaten, and the Altbier Diebels. The group's global brands are Budweiser and Michelob Ultra (both USA), Corona Extra (Mexico), and Stella Artois (Belgium).

The major brewery groups are currently undergoing a strategic change of course: following their experiences in Russia – where Heineken and Carlsberg, among others, were virtually expropriated – they are no longer focusing on geographical diversification and acquisitions of regional breweries and craft beer producers, but are increasingly concentrating on their leading brands.

Heineken, the number two in the global beer market, recorded a 0.4% decline in sales in the second quarter, which was more than analysts had expected. The main reason was declining sales in Europe and America – its most important markets. In France, the Netherlands, and Spain, the Dutch company had been arguing with regional purchasing organizations about prices longer than expected, well into the second quarter. This cost the company revenue. Nevertheless, rising sales in Asia and Africa led to an operating result that exceeded consensus expectations.

When comparing beer production in different countries, China is at the top of the ranking with a production of 341 million hectoliters. The US follows far behind in second place (184.5 million hectoliters). Behind them, almost on a par, are Brazil and Mexico, each with just under 150 million hectoliters. Russia, in fifth place, overtook Germany for the first time in 2024, which had topped the list since 2013, and is now Europe's largest beer producer.

The comparison between the beer output of countries and corporations is interesting and revealing because it illustrates how large the brewery groups are: In China, the world's leading country in terms of beer output, production is almost a third less than in the breweries of AB Inbev (496 million hectoliters). The world's third-largest beer producer, China Resources Snow Breweries (around 109 million hectoliters), accounts for one in three beers in China. And in a combined country-corporation ranking – in which there would of course be double counting – Heineken would slip to third place with its 241 million hectoliters, behind AB Inbev and China, but ahead of the US.