There are no signs of relief for corporate insolvencies in the current year. Analysts at the credit insurance group Allianz Trade have revised the insolvency forecast upwards in their latest update: following a 10% increase in cases in 2024, they now expect a global increase of 8% to 9% in 2025. Previously, an increase of 6% had been assumed. Allianz Trade cites the effects of the trade war as the reason for the adjustment.

The consequences of the tariffs dispute are becoming a decisive factor in many ongoing restructurings, observes Riaz Janjuah, partner in the Restructuring & Insolvency practice at Linklaters. „In many cases, restructuring plans have to be recalculated," he says. "This can lead, for example, to higher financing requirements or can even call into question the viability of the restructuring.“

According to Allianz Trade, insolvencies in Germany are likely to increase by 11% to 24,400 cases in 2025 compared to the previous year. Analysts are particularly concerned about the persistently high number of large-scale insolvencies. These are associated with particularly high losses – and also harbour the risk of subsequent insolvencies along the supply chain.

Allianz Trade counted 122 major insolvencies worldwide in the first quarter in the turnover class above 50 million euros, which corresponds to an average of more than one insolvency per day, and is the highest figure for the start of the year since 2015. In addition, losses are rising: The total turnover of the insolvent large corporations rose to 43 billion euros, up 7% compared to the same quarter last year.

Western Europe is at the „epicentre of major insolvencies,“ the analysts write. 61% of major insolvencies in the first quarter were in Western Europe, 16 of which were in Germany. This figure is slightly below last year's total of 87 large insolvencies, which Milo Bogaerts, CEO of Allianz Trade in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, describes as „a negative record for large insolvencies in Germany“. He expects the number of major insolvencies to remain high in 2025 and warns of the consequences: „These insolvencies are causing particularly large holes in the coffers of their suppliers – with possible domino effects on supply chains,“ says Bogaerts.

In Germany, three large companies from the retail clothing sector and three clinics were among the major insolvencies in the first quarter. The automotive and chemical industries are each represented by two companies. The analysis puts the cumulative turnover of the insolvent large corporations from the first three months at a total of 2.2 billion euros, with the average turnover per insolvent company at 135 million euros.

Restructuring consultancy Falkensteg lists Gerry Weber's self-administered insolvency as one of the largest German insolvencies in the first quarter, with estimated sales of 315 million euros. The fashion house's third restructuring in six years ended recently, with the sale of its trademark rights to a Spanish company.

According to Janjuah, the path to a successful asset sale is becoming more difficult: „Many distressed M&A investors are currently being inundated with purchase offers, but see only a few cases in which they are truly convinced by the asset and its business model,“ he reports. „Insolvency administrators are then often faced with the difficult situation of having only one or two serious prospective buyers.“

Analysts at Allianz Trade expect insolvency figures to continue to rise across all revenue categories next year. 2026 would then be the fifth consecutive year of rising insolvencies.

Germany must also expect rising figures in 2026, with the insolvency forecast calculating a 3% increase in the number of cases. This takes into account that the financial package for infrastructure and defence is likely to offset at least some of the negative consequences of US tariffs.