ECB president Christine Lagarde is well-connected in the world where money and power collide. This trait would benefit the Frenchwoman as the possible new chair of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. She is the preferred candidate of the WEF to succeed Klaus Schwab following his resignation. According to Schwab, he and Lagarde have discussed plans that she takes over „at the latest“ in early 2027. This would mean that Lagarde leaves the ECB before her term ends in October 2027. An ECB spokesmen denies that Lagarde plans to leave the central bank before the end of her term.

If she would do that the frontrunner for the next ECB president seems to be Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot. He was already discussed as a candidate for ECB president back in 2019. Conveniently, his term as president of De Nederlandsche Bank ends in late June – just like his role as chairman of the Financial Stability Board (FSB). „There is absolutely no doubt that Knot is professionally qualified for the ECB president position“, says ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski.

It may be an advantage for the experienced central banker that over the past years he has evolved from a pronounced hawk into a moderate one. Commerzbank now even classifies him as neutral. Hawks are central bankers who generally prefer a more restrictive monetary policy. „Central bankers who are strongly aligned with one of the two camps will likely have a hard time, particularly hawks“, says Commerzbank economist Marco Wagner.

If Lagarde does not resign early, a leadership change at the ECB will be due in November 2027. Her term will then expire and cannot be extended. In this scenario, Knot’s chances would probably be lower, but he would still remain a candidate. Others in the running include Belgian central bank president Pierre Wunsch, his Finnish counterpart Olli Rehn, and notably Pablo Hernández de Cos. The former president of the Spanish central bank will take office as general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) – the so-called central bank of central banks – on July 1.

Some observers see his new role as a springboard to the ECB presidency, especially if the leadership change does not take place until 2027. Hernández de Cos is a dove, representing a more accommodative monetary policy. He is also well versed in banking regulation and advocates for strict standards.

Regardless of the timing of the ECB leadership handover, François Villeroy de Galhau or Joachim Nagel are unlikely to succeed Lagarde. Another French president at the head of the ECB is considered unlikely, just as a German one is unlikely as long as Ursula von der Leyen and Claudia Buch occupy two very senior EU and Eurozone positions.

Highly regarded in expert circles for their expertise are ECB Executive Board members Isabel Schnabel and Philip Lane. „Schnabel would be an excellent candidate in terms of expertise, but Germany is probably not in contention“, notes Alexander Krüger, chief economist at Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Private Bank.

Lane’s Irish nationality is not an obstacle, but another factor might be. It is unclear whether an Executive Board member can legally become ECB president after their term. This question surfaced in 2001 when then French vice president Christian Noyer was considered to succeed Wim Duisenberg. French legal experts concluded it did not violate the rule that board members serve only one term. German experts came to the opposite view. In both cases, questions remained about how independent the assessments were politically. Ultimately, Jean-Claude Trichet took the post.

Executive Board terms are supposed to be staggered to avoid a major upheaval at the ECB leadership all at once. But several members have left prematurely in the past – including Germans Sabine Lautenschläger, Jörg Asmussen, and Jürgen Stark. Thus, the term ends have converged.

Less than six months before Lagarde’s term ends, Lane’s term on the Executive Board expires. Schnabel’s contract is just two months longer than Lagarde’s. If Knot becomes ECB president, Frank Elderson may have to leave, as two Dutch nationals on the six-member Executive Board are politically untenable. Additionally, the Spanish vice president Luis de Guindos will step down next year.

Brzeski thinks it is quite possible that for political reasons an Eastern European might be shortlisted for the vacant seat. Potential candidates include Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujčić or one of the three Baltic central bank chiefs. Slovenia and Slovakia currently struggle to find anyone for the top of their national central banks.

Political disputes also exist in Bratislava, where it is unclear if Peter Kažimír will continue. His term ends on June 1. Slovenia is currently without a proper central bank head. Deputy Primož Dolenc has been acting in the role since January but without voting rights in ECB interest rate decisions.