It would probably be going too far to talk of a crisis in Germany's DIY sector. But after a good year in 2019 and exceptionally strong years in 2020 and 2022 (2021 was an outlier due to pandemic restrictions), Obi, Bauhaus, Hornbach & Co. remain in a stabilisation phase with declining sales. According to the industry association BHB (Handelsverband Heimwerken, Bauen und Garten), the past two calendar years brought like-for-like losses of 3.4% and 1.0%. The first quarter of this year also offers little hope for improvement. Sales at DIY and garden centres in Germany fell by 4% (like-for-like: 3.5%) compared to the same period last year, according to the BHB. However, this comparison is only of limited significance because the first quarter of 2024 was „by far the strongest phase“ of the year before „the veritable weather crash“ set in, which ruined business in the spring quarter – usually by far the most profitable of the year.

The biggest slump among the product ranges in the first quarter was in live plants (–15.1%) and leisure/seasonal goods (–14.5%). In contrast, growth did not exceed 2.3% (products in the sanitary/heating product groups), as reported by the BHB. According to its own information, the industry association covers 98% of the market in the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland).

„We can't really be satisfied with a decline, but we are currently seeing that sales are already developing much better again,“ says BHB CEO Peter Wüst. ’Now it will depend on whether the gardening season continues to be accompanied by suitable weather.’ April brought an increase of 3.3% on a comparable basis, sending positive signals. Many of the BHB's members in the building materials sector have already expressed confidence that the construction crisis has bottomed out.

In fact, quarterly analyses are not very meaningful for the development of DIY and garden centres, as the weather plays a key role in sales and purchases are often brought forward or postponed. However, the association's outlook is somewhat encouraging. „Meteorologically, things are looking quite good for the gardening season, which is so important in the overall context,“ the statement said, even if „much remains to be seen.“ However, „we are currently seeing that sales are already developing much better again.“

Two weeks ago, Albrecht Hornbach, CEO of Hornbach Management AG, also said: ’We see positive signs in the medium to long term.’ He justified this with increased real wages, falling interest rates and declining inflation. Nevertheless, he remained cautious due to the many uncertainties: „It is not yet possible to predict what specific effects the political and economic developments in Europe and worldwide will have on us, our supply chains and the consumer and investment sentiment of our customers.“ BHB CEO Wüst expressed a similar view: „It will depend on what important impetus the new government can provide to restore a spirit of optimism in the country, even if the global situation remains predictably volatile.“

Although the spring season has gotten off to a very successful start, Hornbach says, „we remain cautious in our forecast for the current financial year.“ The holding company expects consolidated sales in the 2025/26 financial year (28 February) to be at or slightly above the previous year's level (6.2 billion euros), which according to the company's nomenclature means a percentage change of between minus 2% and plus 6%. In its latest announcement, management pointed out that revenue growth will be supported by several store openings. Adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes, adjusted for special items) is expected to remain at the 2024/25 level (269.5 million euros) this financial year, which is between minus and plus 2%. The same is predicted for the trading margin. „Despite ongoing cost discipline, however, further cost increases are expected due to inflation-related salary increases,“ warned Hornbach.