Against a background of work on various acquisition plans, HVB parent Unicredit continued its upward trend in the first quarter. After an 8.3% increase in profit to 2.8 billion euros and a 2.8% rise in revenues to 6.5 billion euros, the bank raised its profit forecast to over 9.3 billion euros. If the positive trend from the first quarter, which was unexpectedly good, continues, CEO Andrea Orcel plans to further raise guidance for 2025.

Orcel stated that Unicredit would only pursue its acquisition plans if they were in the best interest of all shareholders. The bank would assess, rationally, whether these deals are value-creating. If not, it would distribute the excess capital of 10 billion euros by 2027. If the conditions are right, action will be taken „faster than you can imagine“, he said during the earnings call. According to Orcel, there is no pressure to act, either regarding the ongoing takeover offer for Italy’s third-largest bank BPM, nor regarding a potential bid for Commerzbank. Unicredit holds a 9.5% stake in Commerzbank, plus derivatives positions.

The conditions necessary to make the final decisions, according to Orcel, are not yet clear, since BPM's acquisition of asset manager Anima has destroyed value worth between 1 billion and 1.7 billion euros. There are also uncertainties from other sides: although the Italian government has given the green light for the already launched BPM takeover, it has imposed conditions under the Golden Power Regulation. Including maintaining the volume of Italian government bonds on the balance sheet, not limiting the credit volume, and requiring Unicredit’s withdrawal from Russia. According to Orcel, some aspects of the Golden Power rules are unclear, and he is calling for clarification. Only once this is resolved will Unicredit decide. „We’re waiting“, said Orcel.

Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has stated that, regardless of antitrust concerns, the issue is a matter of national security. However, for other takeovers – such as Monte dei Paschi’s bid for investment bank Mediobanca or BPER’s bid for Volksbank Sondrio – Rome has not imposed any conditions. Brussels has urged Rome to adhere to EU rules, and the government’s requirements are unrelated to anti-trust regulations. The EU has yet to comment on antitrust issues.

Regarding plans for Commerzbank, Orcel also wants to take his time. He pointed out that the gap in the cost-to-income ratio between HVB and Commerzbank had widened by around 20 percentage points, and HVB's return on equity was nearly twice as high as that of Commerzbank. But alongside the bank itself and the unions, the new German government is reluctant as well. The issue of a possible takeover is currently on hold. Orcel noted, however, that there are other acquisition options.

In the first quarter, Unicredit exceeded expectations. The significantly increased fee income and the very positive development in trading more than offset the declining net interest income. Revenues grew by 2.8% to 6.5 billion euros. Costs rose only slightly. Loan loss provisions were reduced by nearly 20% to 83 million euros. With a cost-to-income ratio of 35.4% (previous year: 36.2%), Orcel sees Unicredit at the forefront in Europe. Orcel announced a higher dividend for 2025 compared to 2024 and confirmed the goal of achieving a net profit of 10 billion euros by 2027.

The stock price rose significantly after the earnings were announced. With a market capitalisation of 86 billion euros, HVB's parent company is closing in on Italy's top bank, Intesa Sanpaolo.