The number of bankers in Frankfurt is expected to continue to rise, even as it has been decreasing nationwide for years. By the end of 2024, Helaba anticipates an increase of 900 jobs or 1.3% compared to this spring, bringing the total number of bank employees to 69,700, according to financial expert Ulrike Bischoff in the Financial Center Focus published on Tuesday. However, after this gradual increase, a decline in employment is anticipated. The figures include socially insured employees in Frankfurt's banking sector and at the stock exchange.

According to the most recent available data from spring, there were 68,800 bankers working within the city limits, which is more than what Helaba had expected. Despite many advertised but unfilled positions and reported personnel shortages in the financial market, Helaba had anticipated a weaker increase in banking employment. Bischoff attributes the unexpected increase to the significant rise in the number of businesses in the employment statistics last summer, resulting in a robust employment increase of 3.1% in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in the previous year.

The number of positions in banks has been increasing in Frankfurt in the long-term trend, whereas the national situation is quite different. For example, ten years ago, there were 62,200 bankers in the city, which is 6,600 fewer than this spring. Nonetheless, on a nationwide scale, the number of employees decreased from 683,000 to 629,000 between 2013 and 2019, as analyzed by the Deutsche Bundesbank. This statistic is no longer being maintained.

"Bank employment in Frankfurt has been stable for many years, showing moderate cyclicality, while in Germany, it continues to follow a downward trend," describes financial center analyst Bischoff. This phenomenon illustrates that Frankfurt remains the leading banking center in the country.

Bischoff attributes the job effect in Frankfurt to the concentration on the corporate headquarters in the city, where there is a high demand for professionals well-versed in sustainability, digitalization, and regulation. "The demand cannot be met in the foreseeable future", explains Bischoff.

Restructuring programs leading to job cuts and the Brexit effect are largely coming to an end, as noted by Helaba. It is estimated that Brexit brought about 3,500 new jobs to Frankfurt.

Depending on their business strategies, there might still be "adjustments to workforce capacities," including downsizing through efficiency-enhancing measures by domestic banks and expansion as part of the plans of foreign banks in Europe. "Germany is considered an attractive market, and business activities in nearby countries are conducted from the Main metropolis due to its gateway function," states the financial center analysis. The city is less affected by branch closures than the rest of the country, further enhancing Frankfurt's banking sector consolidation process.

The study further suggests that the labor shortage is hindering job growth: "The steadily accelerating shortage of skilled workers is an inherent problem," notes Helaba. A demographic decrease in the workforce and the growing academicization of the industry, where the need for specialists is increasing at the expense of traditional bank employees, pose challenges. "The increasing shortage of skilled workers thus acts as a brake on the development of banking employment in Frankfurt," writes Bischoff.

According to the consulting firm ZEB, the average age in the finance sector is 47 years. Finding young talent has become increasingly difficult, even though many institutions have succeeded in recruiting enough apprentices through intensive marketing efforts and innovative selection procedures.

The figures for banking employment differ from those of the entire financial industry, which recently stood at 83,200 and includes entities such as fund management companies. "However, the distinctions have been in sync for years," states the study. The focus on Frankfurt's banking employment reflects the outstanding importance of banks in the region.