Not only gold and the DAX, but also Bitcoin has recently been near record highs. After the self-proclaimed crypto president Donald Trump took office, Bitcoin weakened in the first few months of the year. Recently, however, the oldest cryptocurrency has been on the rise again, surpassing the records set in January and climbing to an all-time high of 112,004 dollars in late May.

According to analysts, this is by no means the end of the road. Some see Bitcoin reaching 150,000 dollars by the end of the year, while the more daring even predict 200,000 or 250,000 dollars. At the same time, the development of the still young crypto asset class remains highly volatile. However, it is also true that Bitcoin was able to achieve enviable returns long before Trump. In the twelve years from early 2012 to late 2023, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalisation was the top performer across all asset classes nine times. It is therefore hardly surprising that inflows into cryptocurrencies continue. This year alone, over 10 billion dollars flowed into the asset class.

There are also tangible reasons for the crypto pioneer's surge. The gradual easing of the global tariffs dispute is benefiting Bitcoin, as is the weak dollar. The digital store of value is considered to be a beneficiary of currency uncertainties. The downgrading of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's also plays into Bitcoin's hands. In addition to more crypto-friendly US regulation, there is also high supply and demand dynamics. Only 165,000 new Bitcoins come into circulation each year, and the total amount of Bitcoins is limited to just under 21 million. This limited supply is now meeting high demand.

Last but not least, the ETFs approved since the beginning of 2024 are creating buying pressure. On top of that, the US wants to introduce a strategic Bitcoin reserve. In addition, companies such as Strategy are also betting on the cryptocurrency. For more and more savers, Bitcoin is becoming an alternative to bank accounts, and for more and more investors, it is becoming a viable investment alongside established assets such as Treasuries.

Nevertheless, „digital gold“ remains significantly more volatile than the real thing. Geopolitical tensions, the tariffs conflict, but also high inflation and, as a result, frequently high key interest rates are macro factors that could slow down Bitcoin's recent strong performance at any time.

The young asset class is also still too often threatened by hacks and other systemic risks. Although these mostly affect smaller cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is regularly held partly liable. And then there is Donald Trump. The US president has been a crypto supporter since the election campaign – but this represents not only an opportunity, but also a systemic risk. Just as Trump sends global stock markets on a rollercoaster ride with his often erratic decisions, this is even more true for the more volatile and less liquid crypto assets. Recently, Trump caused a price surge when it one of his companies allegedly wanted to invest up to 3 billion dollars in cryptocurrencies.

Uncertainties will continue to influence, drive or depress the Bitcoin price in the future. The cryptocurrency reacts positively to uncertainties affecting other asset classes, such as currency fluctuations. It also reacts positively to doubts about the stability of the banking system, such as after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in spring 2023, and doubts about the debt sustainability of the United States. In such cases, Bitcoin shines brighter as an alternative in the investment sky. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies react negatively to tariff disputes, trade barriers and high inflation. In such cases, the typical characteristics of a risk asset come to the fore and investors withdraw funds and turn to safer havens. In the medium term, however, Bitcoin is likely to continue to gain ground even in these uncertain times. The combination of limited supply and rising demand will drive the price of the leading cyber currency to new heights.