Europe has lost a great deal of geopolitical weight
Mr. Wolff, the USA has bombed Iran's nuclear facilities. Is this a good development because a nuclear bomb is no longer an issue? Or bad, because the war is spreading?
I think that is extremely difficult to assess. It is clear that the Mullah's regime is a problem for the whole region. But what nobody knows is whether they were able to remove a lot of highly enriched uranium from the facilities before the attack. We also don't know how badly the facilities were damaged. Finally, we don't know whether the likelihood that the regime will end up using enriched uranium in some kind of dirty bomb in a desperate act has risen or fallen. Overall, it was a risky move by Trump, but the alternative might be even riskier.
What are the immediate consequences of the war for the global economy? Inflation via oil price hikes? Economic weakness due to new uncertainty?
The market reaction was surprisingly relaxed to the new developments. The assessment seems to be that Iran has few options to really restrict oil trade. This is also due to the fact that one of Iran's most important customers is its ally China.
Overall, however, the US has lost a lot of credibility since Trump took office. The dollar is already weakened significantly as a result.
And what long-term consequences do you expect? Will the dollar become a safe haven again because the USA is playing the world's policeman after all?
I think the targeted bombing of the nuclear facilities has rather impressed the markets and convinced them that the US is still the leading nation. However, should the US become embroiled in a protracted conflict, with troops in Iran, this is likely to be interpreted rather negatively. Overall, however, the US has lost a great deal of credibility since Trump took office. The dollar is already weakened significantly as a result.
What are the implications for Europe? The EU seems to be a paper tiger, because negotiations have achieved nothing.
Unfortunately, Europe has indeed lost a great deal of geopolitical weight. In the global South, our credibility has suffered greatly because we have not clearly criticised Israel for the massive bombing of Gaza and the high civilian casualties there. But it is also clear that ultimately the global South itself, perhaps with the exception of South Africa, has done nothing more. Our real weakness, however, lies in the military sphere.
Europe will only be taken seriously if it can provide for its own security alone.
Does this speak for even stronger military effort, in order to be taken seriously – also for peace initiatives?
Indeed, Europe will only be taken seriously if it can provide for its own security alone. Our continent must therefore be in a position to stand up to Putin even without the USA. Our dependence on the USA in the military sphere also means that we are ultimately only able to act independently to a very limited extent in the area of trade.
In a study with the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, you set out where Europe is lacking a credible deterrent. What needs to happen in this regard?
NATO and German politicians think that Putin will be able to attack an EU country by 2030. We show in the study that there is currently still a lack of everything. Although procurement figures are rising, material stocks are still very low. The Bundeswehr is even finding it difficult to equip just one armored brigade for Lithuania. We show that production figures for some established weapon systems have increased substantially. However, there is still a lack of production and procurement of modern systems.
Overall, there is a lack of political seriousness to really solve our security problems in the next few years.
What does that mean politically?
Europe must invest more jointly in strategic capacities that currently only the USA provides for Europe. Satellites, AI and cloud computing are central to security. It is incomprehensible to me that the Bundeswehr is not yet training soldiers on a large scale for a modern drone-based war. Overall, there is a lack of political seriousness to really solve our security problems in the next few years.
