An Interview withMelanie Kreis, DHL

„Tariffs partially have positive aspects for us“

In an interview with Börsen-Zeitung, DHL CFO Melanie Kreis explains why new tariffs and shifting trade flows might have some positive effects for the company. Kreis also discusses sustainability, and the future of the Post & Parcel Germany division.

„Tariffs partially have positive aspects for us“

Ms Kreis, CEO Tobias Meyer has said several times that DHL Group (formerly Deutsche Post) has relatively little international business in which the USA is either an importer or an exporter, and that the high import tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump – if they actually come into force at some point – will not necessarily be detrimental to the group's business. Could you elaborate on that?

More trade barriers mean more complexity. This means that customers also need greater support from their logistics partner. We feel that we are very well positioned globally. If a customer now wants to adapt their supply chains and switch from country A to country B, we can support them. So the tariffs partially have positive aspects for us. In addition, the market is still very fragmented in many areas in which we are active. And: we live in times when customers tend to turn to a large, reliable brand like DHL for support.

Which DHL divisions are particularly affected by the customs and trade dispute and the global slowdown in cross-border trade, and why?

The DHL Express division (time-definite international shipments; editor's note) and Global Forwarding, Freight (transport of goods by rail, road, air and sea; editor's note) are more sensitive to the economic situation. A global economic downturn would have the greatest impact on these two divisions.

Are there already trends – e.g. flows of goods – that originate from anticipated tariff increases? How will these changes affect DHL?

We are currently observing all kinds of reactions from our customers. There are customers who are very cautious and are trying to delay all decisions for as long as possible. On the other hand, some customers are already actively reorganising their production. For example, if production for the USA was previously carried out in China, but the customer may have factories in another country whose goods are subject to lower US import tariffs, they will reallocate. Production is then carried out in the other country for the USA and the goods manufactured in China are redirected. Overall, the volume of trade going from China to the US has already fallen significantly – especially for low-value e-commerce shipments, but also in the business customer business.

If DHL charters capacity on a ship that is travelling for weeks from China to the USA, the customs situation on arrival at the port of destination can be completely different from that on departure. Who bears the risk?

The customs tariff that applies at the time of unloading in the USA is always decisive. Unless you make a pre-clearance beforehand (pre-declaration with release) or register in a bonded warehouse or a free trade zone after arrival at the port of destination, in which case a later tariff applies. This means that there actually is this uncertainty during the ship's passage as to what the „Tariff of the Day“ is when the ship arrives. What is helpful for us in this case is that we do not own any ships – and this will not change – we are only brokers of the capacity. Depending on which format is chosen, we are also not the ones responsible for customs clearance. Sometimes the customer commissions us to do this, but initially the responsibility does not lie with us.

Do the prices for shipping capacity also reflect speculation as to whether tariff increases are coming or not?

Shipowners have told the market: it's getting very tight, take advantage of the window of opportunity until! That's why the rates have gone up. Once again, customers have reacted very differently: Some waited in the hope that things would become cheaper again in the next few weeks. Others took advantage of the offers at the higher price level. The entire market for shipping capacity is currently incredibly dynamic. The bottom line is that I am very happy that we are just the broker and not the one who owns the ships.

… in contrast to its considerable fleet of aircraft.

That's right. In our DHL Express division, around 300 aircraft fly specially for us. This is in the nature of our Express business segment, because it's all about speed. Therefore, we need our own fleet and our own aircraft that we can control and that operate according to our flight plan. This is completely different in sea freight, which is less about speed. That's why there has never been a need to own ships.

Melanie Kreis, DHL's Chief Financial Officer, and CEO Tobias Meyer.
Foto: DHL Group
About the person:

The career path of Melanie Kreis (born 1971), who has worked for the DHL Group (formerly Deutsche Post) since 2004 – including as a member of the Board of Management since 2014 and as CFO since 2016 – was not initially foreseeable. After completing her physics degree at the State University of New York at Stony Brook with a Master's degree (1994) and a diploma at the University of Bonn (1997), Kreis earned an MBA at the Insead business school in France. Rather by chance, Kreis then joined the management consultancy McKinsey (1997 to 2000), where many top managers had worked before joining DHL, such as former CEO Frank Appel and current CEO Tobias Meyer. Kreis then went to Apax Partners for four years before starting to earn her stripes in Bonn.

Kreis enjoys an excellent reputation in the financial community. When a successor to Appel as CEO was being sought in 2023, she was viewed as one of the contenders. In 2024, Kreis was included in Forbes magazine's list of the world's 50 most influential women over the age of 50 („50 over 50“).

A shift towards domestic economic policy. At the start of the coalition government made up of CDU/CSU and SPD, the announcement that a special fund of 500 billion euros would be used to invest in infrastructure caused a stir. What is your view on this, and what impact could it have on DHL?

Shortly after our annual press conference on 6 March, I flew to the USA with our annual figures in my luggage. It was a completely new experience to see that Germany was perceived as great and exciting, as a wow–country where things were suddenly happening. You had the feeling that you were the „darling of the week“. Personally, I think it's obvious that we have some catching up to do when it comes to investing in infrastructure and digitalisation. This is very important for the group, especially in the area of infrastructure, so that we can provide our services smoothly and with good quality.

Sounds like there's a „but“ coming now…

Half a „but“. I believe we have the great advantage that the German state has managed its finances economically in the long term. However, we have also lived off our reserves in various areas and invested too little. That's why investment is generally a good idea, and we have areas with a clear need to catch up. But this must be done in a disciplined manner. The special fund must not be misused for purposes other than infrastructure and digitalisation. This is the big concern that I have and that many others share. Is the money really being used for the benefit of future generations? If the special assets were simply used today for short-term consumption, and fizzled out, it would be viewed very critically.

There are investors, such as the investment companies DWS and Deka, who have repeatedly asked DHL to consider spinning off its mail and parcel business in Germany. The DHL management has always rejected this so far. However, an independent company for Post & Parcel Germany was launched in 2024. Some observers suspect that this is the preliminary stage of a spin-off.

Our Management Board team has always made it clear that the P&P Germany division is and will remain an important member of the family. It is clear that this division – unlike the four DHL divisions – is currently undergoing a difficult transformation process, from mail to parcel. If you compare our German mail and parcel business with other postal companies, we are doing very well. Last year, this division generated an operating profit of 820 million euros. This year we are aiming for 1 billion euros. This is also necessary so that the division can meet its annual investment requirements, including in the transformation, from its own resources, which is important for us from a group perspective.

At the beginning of March, DHL announced job cuts in its former core business. This year, 8,000 jobs – corresponding to 4% of employees in the P&P Germany division – are to be cut. At the end of 2024, DHL employed around 187,000 people in this division; of these, around 170,000 are employees covered by collective bargaining agreements who enjoy protection against dismissal. How will the job cuts take place?

The reduction is to be carried out in a socially responsible manner: By not filling vacant positions, for example when employees retire or leave the group for other reasons.

What are your longer-term plans for P&P Germany's business in view of the fact that letter volumes have been falling for many years?

When we look towards the end of the decade, we will also start to grow again in this division, because mail volumes will have bottomed out and parcel growth will dominate. We will then have the market-leading quality parcel service provider in Europe's largest economy in our portfolio.

The DHL family members all already have their own flat in the shared house, only P&P Germany still lives in the living room.

In September last year, DHL announced, among other things, the simplification of its legal structure. What purpose does this serve?

The aim is to standardise and simplify the legal group structures, which we want to harmonise with our operational management structures. Once this project has been completed, P&P Germany, for example, will be in the same „state“ as its DHL siblings. The image I always use is that of a family home with different flats. The DHL family members all already have their own flat in the shared house, only P&P Germany currently still lives in the living room. We are now looking to give the division – like the other four divisions – its own flat. We will then have a holding company as the umbrella organisation for the whole thing. This is a more modern group structure that makes it easier to modernise IT in individual areas, for example. The bottom line is that such a structure provides more flexibility.

In order to earn 1 billion euros per year operationally, which is necessary for investments in P&P Germany, increases in postage prices, parcel prices etc. will be necessary from time to time. These increases must be authorised by the Federal Network Agency. Do you feel that you are being restricted in this respect?

The postal and parcel business in Germany is regulated because we have a dominant market position. This is a situation that we have always had to live with and deal with. Now we have had an extraordinary development in recent years: we had price regulation for the years 2022 to 2024, which was still calculated on the basis of low inflation, among other things. However, we then had years with very high inflation and an accelerated decline in letter volumes, during which we were unable to adjust prices accordingly. That is why we had anticipated a higher scope for price increases in 2025 and 2026 and, following the discussions about the Postal Act, realised that this would have been justified. In our opinion, the regulator's decision on our price application was far too low.

Why?

The Federal Network Agency has used different assumptions. That is the right and the role of the Federal Network Agency. Ultimately, the regulator has its view of things, we have ours. Of course, our positions do not always agree 100%. What the public hardly realises is that there are always price applications for smaller products that simply go through.

„The DHL divisions are responsible for generating dividends and share buybacks.“ Your words from the latest annual press conference. Doesn't this give rise to a little resentment within the group, along the lines of: we, the DHL divisions, are responsible for the group profit, i.e. the funds required for dividend payments and share buybacks, while P&P Germany barely brings in the money it needs itself and already gets a green tick for doing so?

The DHL colleagues also know that P&P Germany has to go through a challenging transformation process and is therefore in a different situation to the DHL divisions. They know that the colleagues at P&P Germany are working hard and making their contribution. Understanding clearly prevails. We also all see the future prospects for P&P Germany, which is why it is absolutely fine if the contributions to the dividend are currently distributed differently.

Costs are to be reduced by more than 1 billion euros through a cost-cutting programme. The measures will affect all areas of the company and should take full effect in 2027. Could you give some examples of where and how savings are being made?

Firstly, our Group Strategy 2030 is entitled „Accelerate sustainable growth“ - in other words, we want to grow faster and sustainably. We deliberately chose the name „Fit for Growth“ for the efficiency aspect of our strategy up to 2030 because good „fitness“ is important if we are to successfully implement our growth strategy. If you want to tackle a marathon and have a few extra kilos on your ribs, you have to get in shape in good time. That's the idea behind „Fit for Growth“. That's how we optimise our flight network at DHL Express. The fact that we work a lot with partner airlines plays a role here. We are also constantly renewing our aircraft fleet. If you take an expensive old aircraft out of service and replace it with a modern one, this leads to efficiency gains.

What are you doing beyond that?…

We are optimising our operations in the delivery depots and our hubs (network hubs; editor's note); this involves automation, for example, as well as adapting route planning. We are also realising potential savings in indirect functions, where we are benefiting from digitalisation and process standardisation.

In order to realise growth potential, DHL has been focusing on five initiatives since September 2024: Life Sciences & Healthcare, New Energies, a focus on 20 countries with particularly strong growth opportunities, e-commerce and digital sales. The aim here is to score points with special logistics services. How do DHL's Life Sciences & Healthcare services differ from those of its competitors?

In this area in particular, it is essential to have in-depth expertise, as customers are very risk-averse when it comes to pharmaceuticals and healthcare for understandable reasons – they are not prepared to take a leap of faith here, along the lines of: let's see if it works. It's a big advantage if you have an established brand name and are seen as a reliable partner with a lot of experience.

Do you have any examples of what sets DHL apart from the competition?

What really sets us apart is that we can offer an end-to-end supply chain. In our Supply Chain division, we have warehousing solutions for all temperature ranges, in Global Forwarding we have an air freight solution for larger and heavier consignments, and Express offers fast delivery for small, medium and large consignments, including last-mile delivery. This is an offering that no competitor has in this form. Current developments in modern medicine offer us a further opportunity. For example, cancer therapies are increasingly being customised to the individual patient. As a result, medicines are less likely to be delivered to a hospital as a standard delivery, but are increasingly being delivered to doctors' surgeries or directly to the patient's home. This is an inherently attractive growth market for which we are uniquely positioned thanks to the breadth of our services.

At the end of March, net financial debt looked quite high at 18.8 billion euros. What are the reasons for this?

The majority of net financial debt is made up of lease liabilities, primarily for our aircraft and real estate, which we are required to recognise in accordance with IFRS 16. This amounted to 14.7 billion euros as at 31 March. Our bonds, on the other hand, totalled 8.7 billion euros. You can philosophise for hours about whether IFRS 16 was a good idea and has really made things more transparent. For us, leasing is an important part of our business model. For example, leasing in the aircraft sector also gives us flexibility to adjust the size of our fleet if necessary – this is our response to changes in capacity requirements. And if a customer in the warehouse logistics sector concludes a five-year outsourcing contract with us, we generally also lease a warehouse for five years so that – if the deal expires after five years – we do not own a building that we may not be able to use. This is why our net financial debt looks higher in absolute terms. However, it is covered by our business, so I'm not losing any sleep over it.

What do the rating agencies say about DHL? Do you have a minimum rating that must be achieved?

Our rating is very important to us; it is a target figure in our financial strategy. We are currently rated „A2“ by Moody's and „A-“ by Fitch. This puts us at the upper end of our self-imposed range with Moody's and even a notch better with Fitch.

DHL has been quite active in terms of acquisitions in recent months, even if there have been no mega takeovers. What effect has this had on the cash figures?

You are right: we have probably announced more transactions recently than in the past few years put together. Of course, this does not change the actual operating cash generation before M&A. At around 90%, the conversion of net profit to cash before M&A transactions is at a pretty good level for us, which we want to maintain. This is the basis that allows us to afford this inorganic growth.

Deutsche Versand Service (DVS) accuses Deutsche Post of dumping. The alleged damages amount to 978 million euros plus interest. The driving force behind the claim for damages is the activist investor 7Square Partners. What is your or the Management Board's position on this? Have you recognised provisions for the event of a guilty verdict?

There is nothing new on this topic. This is a long-running legal dispute that we are facing up to. We have a fundamentally different legal opinion here and will defend it resolutely in court. Apart from that, we have nothing to say about ongoing proceedings, including any provisions.

The Post Tower in the Gronau district of Bonn is the headquarters of DHL (formerly Deutsche Post). At 162.50 metres, the building was the tallest high-rise in Germany outside Frankfurt until 2025. It has now been overtaken by the Estrel Tower in Berlin (176 metres). Nationwide, the two buildings rank 17th and 11th respectively.

On 1 July 2023, the Group changed its name from Deutsche Post to DHL. However, Deutsche Post shares are still traded on the stock exchange and not DHL shares. Why is that?

For two years now, we have had a new name with which we present ourselves to the outside world: DHL Group. We have also already changed our stock exchange abbreviation to DHL, and our medium-term goal is to also operate as a listed company under DHL. The right time for this will come when we have completed the aforementioned adjustments to our legal structure. In our target picture, there is DHL Holding as the parent company and a new Deutsche Post AG as a subsidiary for our P&P Germany business. We are preparing all of this in the course of this year with the aim of obtaining approval at the Annual General Meeting next spring.

The Group's valuation on the stock exchange is not at the level where we believe it should be.

78.7% of Deutsche Post and DHL shares are in free float. KfW Bankengruppe holds 17% and the company itself owns 4.3%. What does DHL intend to do with its own shares?

The repurchased shares will either be cancelled to service long-term Executive Board remuneration and possible future employee share offers. However, I would like to remind you that we have increased our buyback programme initiated in 2022 with a volume of up to 4 billion euros by 2 billion euros. It was originally due to expire this year, but we have extended and accelerated it until the end of 2026 – clearly signalling that the group's valuation on the stock market is not at the level where we believe it should be.

Organic growth, acquisitions, dividend payments and share buybacks – what are your priorities?

This is clearly set out in our financial strategy. The basis for the shareholders is the regular dividend. A great deal would have to happen before we would consider reducing the dividend. On the business side, investments in organic growth take priority. Depending on how good our cash generation is and how strong our balance sheet is, we then consider what we can spend on inorganic growth and share buybacks. If we were in a situation where we were less financially sound, a share buyback would be the first thing to be considered for disposition. That is something for which you should already have a certain basic health.

DHL has set itself clear goals in terms of sustainability and has so far expressly committed to these goals, which were proclaimed before the changes of government in Washington and Berlin. Can we be sure that the DHL Board of Management will not revise its sustainability targets in view of the changed political climate?

I am convinced that the consequences of climate change are real and they are becoming increasingly clear. As a logistics company, we have significant CO₂ emissions. I believe that we can gain a competitive advantage if we can offer our customers low-emission alternatives in individual products. That is why we are prepared to make advance investments. In recent years, we have invested hundreds of millions in decarbonisation. But it is absolutely clear that we must succeed in getting customers to share in the costs and pay more for low-emission products. This will determine how much we can invest in such products in the medium and long term. If, even after ten years, we still see that there is no willingness to pay, then I have to ask myself the question: Am I really creating a competitive advantage with these products? After all, we are investing our shareholders' money.

Can you give an example of a green product from DHL?

Take Express as an example. The main topic here is aviation. We can show very transparently how much sustainable aviation fuel we buy and how much more expensive it is than conventional jetfuel. We can offer our customers a clear message: If you buy this product, your CO₂ emissions for a flight from Hong Kong to Frankfurt will be reduced by X per cent.

A topic that is more relevant than ever: cyber security. What is DHL doing to protect customers from attacks?

Of course, we try to make our customers aware that we would never do certain things, such as asking for bank or personal details by text message. We check ourselves, for example: Where are domains registered to DHL worldwide? Are there suddenly DHL accounts on social media that don't come from us? We try to keep an eye on this and then take action against it. But vigilance on an individual level is and remains crucial.

How does DHL protect itself against cyber attacks?

As far as our own cyber defence area is concerned, this is a top priority topic that we are working on intensively. One indicator of how important this is to us is that this topic is included in the remuneration of the Executive Board. For me, cyberattacks are one of the biggest risks for large companies worldwide. There are competitors in our industry that have been affected.