At the end of every half and full year, capital markets investors like to draw some conclusions and look ahead. This time round, they are rubbing their eyes. In euro terms, European bank shares topped the performance rankings with a plus of 34.6%. The Dax and MDax gained 20.1% and 19.1% respectively. And individual stocks such as Rheinmetall, Siemens Energy, and Commerzbank rose by aound 180%, 90%, and 80%, respectively.

In contrast, US President Donald Trump has proved to be a value destroyer, at least for euro investors. The euro gained an incredible 13.8% against the dollar in the first half of the year. As a result, the broad US equity index S&P 500 suffered a loss of 6.8% in the European currency, while US government bonds slipped by 8.8%. Although the price of gold rose significantly in US dollar terms, it only gained 11.1% in euro terms.

European banks and the stock markets of Greece, Spain, Italy and Germany (with the Dax) were the first choice for dollar investors. At least American equities still managed to make gains in the weakening US currency, as prices recovered from the slump after Liberation Day. The stock markets benefited from the fact that Trump, after first pulling out a massive tariff hammer, then partially corrected his tariff policy. In addition, after a temporary rise caused by the escalation in the Middle East, the price of oil fell again following the ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

Capital markets strategists at the major investment firms are still looking ahead with caution. „US President Trump remains the dominant factor on the capital market,“ says Frank Engels, the Union Investment board member responsible for portfolio management. The risk of accidents should not be underestimated. „A hardening of positions in the tariff conflict with China or Europe could have a greater negative impact on economic growth than expected, and also fuel inflation.“

After the high gains in the first half of the year, the second half is likely to be more difficult for the Dax. In any case, none of the strategists expect another 20% gain. „With an outstanding first half of the year for the Dax, equities have anticipated a lot of positive developments and are highly valued,“ says Markus Reinwand from Helaba. He expects the Dax to fall to 22,000 points by the end of this year and then strengthen again to 23,000 points by mid–2026.

Joachim Schallmayer, Head of Capital Markets and Strategy at Deka, is more confident. He initially expects consolidation over the summer months. „The intensity of the geopolitical conflicts, but above all the increasingly visible tariff effects, speak in favour of moderate price corrections with continued high fluctuations.“ However, as he does not see the structural upward trend of the stock markets in danger, Schallmayer advises against short-term, hectic buying and selling: „We assume that the Dax will end the year at the current price level of 24,000 points and reach the 26,000 point mark in the next twelve months.“

In recent years, the big American tech stocks had driven the US stock market and led to an outperformance of the US stock exchanges. After all, US tech stocks had climbed to valuation levels reminiscent of the peak of the dotcom bubble. But then, DeepSeek and Donald Trump's economic policy led to price corrections.

However, renowned capital market strategists such as Vincent Mortier, CIO at Amundi, Paul Jackson, Global Head of Asset Allocation Research at Invesco, and Harald Preißler, capital market strategist at Bantleon, still classify the shares of the Magnificent Seven as expensive or too expensive, and recommend taking a broader position by investing in European shares, small caps and Chinese stocks. „Europe's time has come,“ says Mortier and advises investors to broaden their horizons to include small and mid-caps.

Deka strategist Schallmayer also believes that US equities will only move sideways over the next twelve months, while European equities are likely to rise solidly. „A change in sentiment is underway among international investors, which should ensure sustained inflows into European equities that will support share prices", he says. In addition, many MDax companies are now emerging from the shadowy existence of recent months. Invesco expert Jackson favours a mix of bank loans, non-US equities and industrial commodities. He considers Chinese equities to be attractive. These are still unusually cheap. In Europe, not only the aviation and defence industries are benefiting from the ramping up of military spending – but also other sectors such as construction and capital goods.

„The special status of the USA is over,“ says Bantleon strategist Preißler. The Shiller P/E ratio clearly shows that the higher the valuations are today, the lower the performance will be in the coming years. „In concrete terms, US equities should offer price growth of 3% to 5% p.a. in the future, while European equities should achieve 7% to 8% p.a.“

Most strategists believe that the dollar is likely to weaken further against the euro. Michael Heise, Chief Economist at HQ Trust, explains: „Values of around 1.20 dollars for one euro at the end of the year seem plausible.“